Hana Bank officially back on the 2010 LPGA Schedule
by Bill Jempty on Feb 8, 2010 10:38 AM PST
4 comments
They have signed a three-year deal with the tour.
The LPGA today announces that Hana Financial Group will title sponsor an LPGA tournament for the next three years, starting this October. The LPGA Hana Bank Championship, a 54-hole official money event, will be held October 29-31, 2010 in the greater Seoul, South Korea area and feature a purse of $1.8 million.
Another tournament, limited field or not, is good news for the LPGA. Only one odd thing- The LPGA is now scheduled to play two tournaments the weekend of Oct 29-Oct 31. Does this mean China be moved to the otherwise open weekend of Oct.22-24?
Update- John Show of Sports Business Journal writes-
The confirmed event in South Korea gives the LPGA three consecutive weeks in Asia, assuming a title sponsor can be found for the IMG-run event in China scheduled for Oct. 22-24. The Mizuno Classic in Japan is scheduled for the week following the Hana Bank event.
The way I read the above is that the China stop is still up in the air. Just like it was in 2009, and it ended up being canceled. The good news now over then is that Michael Whan is Commissioner not Carolyn Bivens.
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Approach Factor - Revisited
by hound dog on Feb 5, 2010 3:00 PM PST
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A little over a year ago, I came up with the idea that the relationship between a player's ability to reach the Green In Regulation and her driving ability could be measured. I wanted to generate a number where a player would rate highly if she was either poor at driving and good in GIR, or if she was good at driving and great in GIR. I also wanted lower ratings for the opposite tendencies. When I was first thinking about it, I couldn't come up with a reasonable formula to generate a number so I merely compared the players' rankings in the two categories - a second-rate method at best.
After some very helpful discussions this week with Tatkins and Ruthless Mike, I came up with a basic formula and tinkered around with it until the results were satisfactory. Here then, is my newest version of Approach Factor:
GIR * (170-TD)
Before I show you the results, I should explain the theory behind the formula. The second factor is designed to deliver a number near 100. Total Driving numbers range from about 75 to 65 (although the poorest drivers often sink to around 60). The usual average number for a season's worth of data is about 69 but I decided to make the constant's target 70 for simplicity's sake. TD is subtracted from 170 because I need the factor to decrease as TD increases. This creates an "inverse" value of TD, so to speak.
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My Thoughts On "Pathways To Success"
by hound dog on Feb 4, 2010 3:00 PM PST
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Early yesterday morning (how he writes by night and works by day is beyond me!), The Constructivist posted this interesting item at Mostly Harmless. He begins by pondering the credentials that might prompt a player to have a go at the LPGA but winds up raising questions about how we classify players and whether those classifications tell us a complete story. Rather than respond by composing the longest comment ever recorded in the annals of Blogspot, I decided to ramble on about it here.
The three categories of players that TC mentioned - Bombers, Straight Shooters and Precision Players - have obvious differences but they are all aiming for the same goal. I'm not talking about "Get In The Hole". These categories refer primarily to off-the-tee performance and secondarily to reaching the green. Until somebody perfects those hole-out shots from over 100 yards, a goal of Getting In The Hole is lunacy. The actual goal from the tee box or with an approach is to attain the best possible position for the next shot while taking into account the estimated risk of the attempt. Anybody playing from the rough or sand risks making improper contact with the ball. The Bombers risk an inaccurate shot with their faster clubhead speeds and the Precision Players risk an overly long subsequent shot with their slower speeds. The Straight Shooters are the interesting ones as they probably get to make strategic decisions more often because of their versatility. I've often wondered how many Straight Shooters are actually Bombers who rarely use the driver and how many Bombers are actually Straight Shooters who use the driver every chance they get.
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Frankenstat Rankings - Version1.0
by tatkins on Feb 3, 2010 11:08 AM PST
22 comments
Frankenstats are stats calculated from multiple existing LPGA stats. Frankenstat Rankings - Version 1.0 was meant to be a proof of concept ranking system. The basis concept was that it was possible to use the existing LPGA statistics and calculate Frankenstats and the combination of LPGA stats and Frankenstats would allow a better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the LPGA players golfing skills compared to each other. The system should rate the players from best to worst for a series of skills and for overall ranking. The LPGA website has data from 2004 to 2009 (six years) upon which the system must be built. Most people believe that the longer hitters have an advantage over shorter hitters. Therefore, another purpose was to show how that advantage manifests, and what shorter hitters can do to minimize that advantage. I will use individual players to illustrate the points I wish to make. However, the individual players represent the different types and Tiers of players. Annika Sorenstam (pre injury) and Lorena Ochoa have been the only dominate players in the time span for which data is available. Discussion of either will be about what it takes to be a dominate player, which I define here as more than 5 victories in more than one season, Tier 1 players. One step down the pyramid of players is those with 3 to 5 victories in a season, Tier 2 players (Paula Creamer, Christie Kerr, Meg Mallon, Suzann Petterson, JiYai Shin, Karrie Webb) Tier 3 players are those with 2 victories in a season or multiple seasons with a victory (too many to name all of them). Tier 4 players are those with a single victory. Tier 5 players are those who have not won. Both Tier 1 players are long hitters, over 260 yards average distance. Tier 2 players are a combination of long hitters (Pettersen with Kerr and Webb over or just under 260 dependant on the year) and those in the mid range in length of just under 250 yards (Creamer and Shin). Tier 3, Tier 4 and Tier 5 players go from long hitters to short hitters and everything in between.
The first Frankenstat I use, I borrowed (stole) from Hound Dog. Driving Efficiency is Driving Distance * Driving Accuracy added to Driving Distance, then divided by 1.8. The calculation gives added weight to distance, but allows the mid range hitters to score well if they hit a very high percentage of fairways. Longer hitters have an advantage because they have shorter irons into the greens which should make it easier to hit a higher Percentage of Greens In Regulation. However, it is easier to hit the GIR from the fairway than the rough. So I believe the calculation to be a good compromise between distance and accuracy.
The first LPGA stat I use is Percent Greens In Regulation. I think that it is a good proxy for how well a players hits their irons. The better Iron players will hit a higher %GIR than a lessor iron player. Those players who score well year after year on %GIR must be the better iron players.
The second Frankenstat I use is the Stokes Tee to Green. I calculate the Scoring Average for tournaments that the LPGA keeps putting stats. The Strokes Tee to Green is then the Scoring Average minus the Average Putts Per Round. There are three things in play with respect to Stokes Tee to Green. %GIR is a big factor, then a players ability to get up and down from the sand or from around the green, and finally how many times a player is able to reach a Par 5 in two.
The second LPGA stat used is the Putts Per Green In Regulation, which is the best pure putting statistic available.
The third Frankenstat used the the Adjusted Total Putting. Using the Percent Greens In Regulation and the Putts Per Green In Regulation and Average Putts Per Round, I calculate the Adjusted Total Putting. The Adjusted Total Putting calculates the number of putts per round as if each player hit 12 greens in regulation and missed 6 greens. That calculation removes the % GIR from the putting stat to give a better comparison of total putting using an intermediate calculation of Putts Per Greens Missed.
The Frankenstat Ranking Version 1.0 ranks the players from 1 to however many players are included in the stats for each year (146 to 169 dependant on the year). Then using the place on the list for each stat, calculates an average place on the list to give an average rating. Ordering the average from lowest to highest then ranks the players from best to worst. To be honest, that is a terrible way to determine on overall ranking. A number of players may have very close to the same value but be fairly far apart on the list. Also, there is no way to compare a ranking from one year to another. I am now working on Frankenstat Ranking Version 2.0. The idea is to calculate a value for each of the five stats versus a set standard and weight each stat at 20% of the total and calculate a numeric value for each player. Then it is possible to compare an individual player rating from year to year as well as compare any player to another for any year (is Sorenstam's 8 win year better or worse than Ochoa's 8 win year?).
Observations below the fold.
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My LPGA Predictions For 2010
by hound dog on Feb 1, 2010 3:00 PM PST
1 comment
I've already listed my Preseason Top 30, predicting how the best players on Tour will fare this season. Now it's time to make some real predictions. Why? So we can all look back at them and have a good laugh this fall.
Seriously, I've come up with a few things that I believe you're going to see this LPGA season. If you have predictions of your own, post them in the Comments and I'll add them to the list if they seem to warrant it. Here goes...
No player will win more than three times but at least five players will win at least twice.
Last year Lorena Ochoa and Jiyai Shin led the Tour with three wins while Anna Nordqvist and Na Yeon Choi were the only others to win more than once. With two fewer events on the schedule (as of this writing) I expect the first part of this prediction to come true. It's the continually narrowing gap between the top 8-12 players that causes me to expect the second part.
No more than 15 different players will win an event this year.
Last year featured 20 different champions in 27 events. With fewer events and the expectation of more multiple winners, I have to predict that no more than 15 players will win. Another factor which may reduce the number of winners - fewer tournaments means a higher concentration of the best players will be playing every week, so the stronger fields should make it more difficult for a lesser player to break through.
The trend of first-time major champions will continue.
Did you know that the last seven majors have been won by first-timers? Lorena Ochoa's win at the 2008 Kraft Nabisco was her second major championship, both them coming back-to-back. Ochoa's '07 British win was the fourth straight by a first-time major champion so that makes eleven out of the last twelve. The LPGA had gone eleven seasons without having all four majors being won by "rookies" but now has seen that happen in two of the last three.
With more major champions now in the mix, doesn't that make it harder for the streak to continue? Sure, but look at the list of those who still don't have one - Paula Creamer, Ai Miyazato, Na Yeon Choi, Angela Stanford, Michelle Wie, In-Kyung Kim, Song-Hee Kim...and those are only the ones ranked in my 2009 final 15. None of last year's four winners were in my Top 15 the week they won. Chances are, one of this year's majors will be won by a player who already owns a major title. But I wouldn't be surprised if the other three of them are won by first-timers. Now on a related subject...
The U.S. Open jinx will continue.
Seven years of precedence is too much to ignore. I do believe that Eun-Hee Ji will recover from it - the only question is when.
The overall Tour scoring average will be even better than it was last year.
Despite the new groove regulations, I predict that last year's 72.73 average (which was the lowest I have on record dating back to the 2004 season) will be improved upon in 2010. Reasons? The afore-mentioned higher concentration of the best players playing every week, the decrease in full-field events, the subtraction of a handful of higher-scoring events (SBS, MasterCard and for now, Korea) plus the fact that most of the returning events will be on the same courses they were the last time around (U.S., British and Canadian Opens aside). Oh yeah, swap Bulle Rock for Locust Hill at the Wegmans LPGA Championship - that's been good for about a half-stroke for most of the last six years. Given some good luck with the weather, 2010's average could crack 72.50.
Now for some predictions which are slightly less grounded in statistical analysis...
Grace, Angela and Jane Park will all make at least 15 starts this year and will all collect at least one Top 10. I left Gloria Park out of this prediction because I'm not sure she'll make 15 starts.
This year's player who will return from maternity leave with the biggest surprise performance will be Mi Hyun Kim.
At some point prior to the beginning of the U.S. Open, at least one golf scribe will write that the LPGA is boring because either 1) so-and-so is dominating the Tour so the rest of the players suck, or 2) no one player is dominating the Tour so they all suck. I get double-points on this prediction if that same article mentions that Paula Creamer has never won a major.
Paula Creamer and Michelle Wie will be among the 2010 first-time major champions.
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Sybase News Is Good, Not Great
by hound dog on Jan 28, 2010 6:17 AM PST
8 comments
Tuesday's announcement of the new Sybase Match Play Championship was a pleasant surprise. Scheduled for May 20-23, it filled one of three consecutive off-weeks in the Tour's spring schedule and increased the number of official events for 2010 to 24. I've seen a couple of folks report the number is now 25 but their calculations apparently include the Korea event which is currently not listed on the schedule available at LPGA.com. The true number is, unfortunately, still 24.
The other unfortunate part of this news is, while it is a domestic event which for all intents and purposes is replacing an international one, the Sybase is not a full-field event. I'm glad the Tour schedule now includes a match-play tournament - it's a nice change-up from the week-in-week-out normality of stroke play. But what the LPGA really needs is a couple more full-field events to give its rank-and-file more opportunities to simply make a living. Here are the full-field non-major events on this year's ledger:
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LPGA Classic Presented by J Golf Tres Marias Championship Bell Micro LPGA Classic State Farm Classic ShopRite LPGA Classic Jamie Farr Owens Corning Classic Safeway Classic CN Canadian Women's Open P&G NW Arkansas Championship Acapulco LPGA Classic Navistar LPGA Classic CVS/pharmacy LPGA Challenge |
That's right - there are only twelve events that players in the #130+ Priority range (the last third of Category 11 and beyond) have any real chance of starting, compared to 15 a year ago and 21 in 2008. Sure, they could go through qualifying to make the U.S. Open but none of these players will be making more than 13 starts in 2010 and the ones at Position #150 or higher will make significantly less.
The trade-off of Korea for Sybase is (for me) a small net gain for the LPGA but it could have been so much better. If the Korea event can be rescued (and Commissioner Whan and his team have several months left to do that), the Sybase addition will be a larger feather in the cap. I'm saving my excitement for that Atlanta/Hawaii/Corning announcement which is hopefully in the works.
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Preseason Top 30
by hound dog on Jan 26, 2010 3:00 PM PST
1 comment
Did you know there are only three weeks remaining before the LPGA season tees off at the Honda LPGA Thailand? I'd better put on the magic glasses and fill out my entry for the 2010 LPGA Prognostication Derby! You can do it too - just make a FanPost or list your choices for the Top 30 in the comments of this post. Here are mine:
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1. Lorena Ochoa 2. Jiyai Shin 3. Paula Creamer 4. Cristie Kerr 5. Ai Miyazato 6. Suzann Pettersen 7. Na Yeon Choi 8. Michelle Wie 9. In-Kyung Kim 10. Song-Hee Kim 11. Yani Tseng 12. Angela Stanford 13. Brittany Lang 14. Kristy McPherson 15. Sun Young Yoo 16. Anna Nordqvist 17. Seon Hwa Lee 18. Maria Hjorth 19. Vicky Hurst 20. Karrie Webb 21. Lindsey Wright 22. Hee Young Park 23. Amy Yang 24. Morgan Pressel 25. Helen Alfredsson 26. Catriona Matthew 27. Katherine Hull 28. Sophie Gustafson 29. Paige Mackenzie 30. Natalie Gulbis
Honorable Mention: Eun-Hee Ji Wendy Ward Se Ri Pak Hee-Won Han Janice Moodie Inbee Park Jeong Jang Karin Sjodin |
Not too many surprises - every year I seem to get more and more conservative with these things. Picking between Ochoa and Shin at the top is a crapshoot. I went with Lorena because her peripheral numbers across the board were a little bit better than Jiyai's. Wie won't go any higher until she proves she can hit the fairway better than 60% of the time. Sun Young Yoo at #15, Vicky Hurst at #19 and Amy Yang at #23 are my big "reaches" in the middle of the list and Paige Mackenzie cracks the Top 30 because of her surprisingly good '09 stats for a player who finished #51 in my rankings. As for the Honorable Mentions, Eun-Hee Ji is certainly good enough to be a Top 30 player but I'm not going to put her there until I'm sure the U.S. Open jinx has been properly broken. Janice Moodie is this year's "veteran I'm picking to step forward" but I'm stopping short of calling for her to make the best 30. The others either just missed my final 2009 Top 30, their peripherals show them as being better players or I'm just flat out guessing.
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Match play to return to LPGA in 2010
by Bill Jempty on Jan 26, 2010 11:54 AM PST
0 comments
A new tournament in 2010. From Randall Mell at the Shag Bag-
The LPGA announced Tuesday the debut of the Sybase Match Play Championship. The tournament will be held at Hamilton Farm Golf Club in Galdstone, N.J., May 20-23.
Sixty-four of the top players from around the world will compete for a $1.5 million purse, with the winner earning $375,000.
Hamilton Farm was the site of the 2005 and 2006 HSBC Women's World Match Play event. This will be the first official match-play tournament contested since its demise after the 2007 season.
Seon Hwa Lee defeated Ai Miyazato in the finals of the last edition. The LPGA continues to get healthier under its new Commissioner, Michael Whan.
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