Quest For The Card

There are three more full-field events remaining on the LPGA schedule - Navistar, Longs and Kapalua.  The top 80 players on the money list after Kapalua will be designated Category 1 players and have top priority for events in 2009.  The next 20 players will be combined with the top 20 Q-School qualifiers to form Category 11.  By my estimates, most of these players will have a high enough priority to enter 90% of next year's events - in "full-field range", as it were.  So the race for the top 100 is on the front burner for the next several weeks.

I'm going to focus on the Top 80 boundary primarily but will also track the Top 100.  The player who manages to snag the 100^th spot will only be a position or three ahead of #101, so the difference between them is small.  At this level, however, each position down starts to make a big difference in making the field or not.  Keep in mind that the players who rank in the 95-105 range cannot afford to start poorly in 2009 because they will be the first players pushed out of "full-field range" as the new in-season promotion rules kick in after event #7.  Also - any player who finished in the Top 40 in 2007 but isn't in this year's Top 80 will get classified 1a and line up directly behind the Top 80 in priority.  Those potential players are Na On Min (79), Brittany Lincicome (89), Meaghan Francella (94), Laura Davies (95), Julieta Granada (112), Sherri Steinhauer (113), Amy Hung (116), Sarah Lee (127) and Sung Ah Yim (149).  You could consider those players "grandmothered in".  That clause will not exist moving forward, meaning that a Top 40 finish this year doesn't award any special consideration for 2010. 

At this moment, player #80 on the money list is Jennifer Rosales with $125,075 and player #100 is Michelle Ellis with $89,684.  After Kapalua, I project position #80 will be around $142,000 and position #100 will rise to $102,000.  Given those estimates (which I will re-evaluate as the weeks go by), here is how I assess the current chances of the players "on the bubble":

LOCKS:

Everyone from #71 Sandra Gal on up, I consider to be a shoo-in for Category 1.  Gal has almost $149,000, nearly $7000 above my projected target.  Another way of looking at it - ten players below Gal have to pass her in the next three events (I'm leaving out Samsung because nobody in this discussion will be in the Samsung field).  I think it is extremely unlikely that ten players below her will ALL out-earn Gal by the $10,000-32,000 necessary. 

RELAXED:

#72 Soo-Yun Kang is $1300 above my projected target.  Il Mi Chung (73) and Heather Young (74) are within a couple hundred dollars of it.  Russy Gulyanamitta (75) and Alena Sharp (76) only need $3000 to reach it.  Avoid missing all three cuts, ladies, and you should be in.

APPREHENSIVE:

If any of these players miss more than one cut in the three events, they are in serious do-do.  Moira Dunn (77) and Linda Wessberg (78) need about $10,000 to reach the $142,000 mark.  Jennifer Rosales needs $17,000.  Rosales currently has an $8000 margin over #81 Danielle Downey but I guarantee Jennifer will get knocked out by somebody if she doesn't earn any more money.

NERVOUS:

These players can't afford to miss any cuts.  #81 Downey just finished T4 in Mobile - a similar finish at Navistar would make her a LOCK.  Meredith Duncan (83), Dorothy Delasin (84), Erica Blasberg (85) and Kris Tamulis (86) all need $27-29,000 to make the Top 80, which a Top 10 finish or two Top 25s should net.

SWEATING BULLETS:

Kelli Kuehne (87), Gloria Park (88) and Johanna Head (90) need $32-34,000, which equates to a couple of Top 20 finishes or about one eighth-place finish.  Between them they have only one Top 10 in 56 starts this year (Kuehne T6 at LPGA Championship) so you see the odds of the latter.

BACK AGAINST THE WALL:

Eva Dahllof (91) and Jamie Hullett (92) need $39,000 - equal to about a sixth-place or two Top 15s.  Reilley Rankin (93) is $41,000 short so a Top 5 might be necessary.

NEED A MIRACLE:

From #96 Dina Ammaccapane on down, anything short of a $50,000 paycheck just isn't going to get it done.  That means a Top 5 or two Top 10s.  I'd call that "miraculous".

Using the same structure, here's how I assess the Top 100 chances of these players:

LOCKS - #90 Johanna Head and everyone ahead of her

RELAXED - Dahllof (91), Hullett (92), Rankin (93)

APPREHENSIVE - Ammaccapane (96), Karin Sjodin (97), Wendy Doolan (98), Michelle Ellis (100)

NERVOUS - Eunjung Yi (101), Carolina Llano (102), Mikaela Parmlid (103)

SWEATING BULLETS - Charlotte Mayorkas (104), Brandie Burton (105), Taylor Leon (106), Jimin Jeong (107)

BACK AGAINST THE WALL - Mhairi McKay (109), Paige Mackenzie (110), Mollie Fankhauser (111), Beth Bader (114), Sophie Giquel (115)

NEED A MIRACLE - Becky Lucidi (118) and everybody behind her

Becky Lucidi needs $37,000 in these three events to reach $102,000, which equates to about a top seven finish or two in the Top 20.  Nancy Scranton is in the same boat as Lucidi but since she is retiring at the end of the year, she isn't looking for higher status - just the loot.  Meg Mallon (99), Birdie Kim (108), Grace Park (126), Kelly Robbins (NR) and Hilary Lunke (NR) will be Category 3 due to recent major championships (plus a medical extension or two) if they don't make the Top 80.  Marisa Baena (82), Silvia Cavalleri (122), Nicole Perrot (150) and Joo Mi Kim (NR) are guaranteed Category 5a, 6 or 7 status due to victories in recent seasons.  

I'll update these races after each event.  Good luck, ladies!