Rolex POY Scenarios

Going into this week's final event (the LPGA Tour Championship), Jiyai Shin holds an eight-point lead over Lorena Ochoa for the Rolex Player of the Year Award.  Cristie Kerr is in third place, 29 points behind Shin.  The point breakdown for each event goes like this:

1^st  30, 2^nd  12, 3^rd  9, 4^th  7, 5^th  6, 6^th  5, 7^th  4, 8^th  3, 9^th  2, 10^th 1

Given that structure, here are the scenarios for each of the three POY candidates.

Shin will win POY under ANY of these three scenarios:

            1.  Ochoa doesn't finish better than fourth and Kerr doesn't win.

            2.  She finishes at least ninth while Ochoa doesn't finish better than third.

            3.  She finishes at least sixth while Ochoa doesn't finish better than second.

Ochoa will win POY if:

            1.  She wins the Tour Championship.

            2.  She finishes second and Shin finishes worse than seventh.

            3.  She finishes third, Shin finishes out of the Top 10 and Kerr doesn't win.

Kerr will win POY only if she wins the Tour Championship, Shin finishes out of the Top 10, AND Ochoa doesn't finish third or better.

Several scenarios would result in a tie.  I have no idea how these would be broken or if the award would be shared:

            1.  Kerr wins, Ochoa finishes third and Shin finishes tenth.  All three would be tied with 157 points.

            2.  Any two of the combos in #1 would result in a tie for first if the third player finished worse than stated.

            3.  Ochoa finishes second and Shin finishes seventh (tied with 160 points).