HD Player of the Year Race

Just like that Rolex competition you may have heard about, the Hound Dog Player of the Year race is going down to the final weekend.  Before we were so rudely interrupted back in mid-September, Jiyai Shin had moved into the top spot by winning at Arkansas.  She was followed closely by Cristie Kerr, Ai Miyazato, Suzann Pettersen and Lorena Ochoa.  Angela Stanford, In-Kyung Kim and Yani Tseng were also in good position if they could manage to win an event.

Since then, Ochoa's win at Navistar was the only victory by any of the September top eight.  Na Yeon Choi won twice to move into the elite group.  Shin led last week's Ochoa Invitational at the halfway mark but her 74 on Saturday derailed the chance for her to salt away HD POY honors.  Going into the final weekend, here are the players who still have a chance to take it:

If you're not familiar with my system, a victory is worth eight points (majors count double).  A missed cut costs three points.  Each player gets a set amount of points depending on their money list standing, scoring average and percentage of Top 10 finishes.

If either Ochoa or Shin wins the Tour Championship, she will finish as #1 (in both my system and the Rolex POY system).  If neither one wins and one of those other three does, it could get really interesting.  Kerr and Miyazato would need some help from the first two - failures to finish in the Top 20 would probably be enough.  Choi would need some Hail Mary assistance, like both Shin and Ochoa missing the Friday cut (which I would count as a regulation MC - I would consider this week's Saturday cut to 30 to not be an MC), for NYC to win and take the title.

Aside from winning outright or an Ochoa missed cut, Shin could have a problem making up those two slim points.  She is already at the top of the money list chart, could only pick up one point with a Top 10 finish, and would need to shoot -13 275 this weekend to gain a point on the scoring average chart.  Ochoa could offset that by shooting -9 279 to gain a point herself, and that score would probably earn a Top 10 which would give her another point.  In addition, Ochoa is only fourth on the money list so she could add a couple of points by moving up in that category.  Bottom line - if Lorena goes to Sunday among the Top 10 on the leaderboard, Shin almost has to win to finish #1.

Just like I spelled out in my Rolex scenarios post, the possibility of a tie exists.  If that happens, I'll look at each player's record and pick a winner as objectively as I can - a decision that will surely be up for public debate.