Corona or Futures?

by hound dog on Apr 20, 2009 3:48 AM PDT

In the comments of my only real post last week (sorry guys), Awsi Dooger made some great observations about Kim Welch and her decision to bypass the Corona Championship to play this week's Futures Tour event. Bumping them up to the front page:

Kim Welch may have made a very poor handicapping decision early last week. She was listed third on the LPGA Corona Championship alternate list for next week, behind only fellow Futures Tour players and low priority LPGA members Haeji Jang and Song Yi Choi. Welch has yet to play in an LPGA tournament this year. But at #3 alternate with about 10 days to go I thought she was no worse than 50/50 to make the Corona field, particularly given the venue. There is more late schedule changing when it involves traveling to a foreign country, etc.

Welch’s name dropped off the alternate list early in the week. I assume she decided not to venture to Corona in favor of a safe spot in next week’s Duramed event in Brownsville, Texas, where she is listed in the field. Prior to the season, Welch said she would not try to Monday qualify but instead would focus on the Futures Tour, no doubt partially because her entry fees are waived via the Big Break victory. She’s also probably frustrated as being stuck on the alternate list a couple of times already this season, as low man on the #17 priority category. That’s where the 6-10 Duramed players seem to slot, nowhere in the premium and mid level LPGA events, and borderline alternates in the less favored tourneys.

Welch has generally played poorly since her Duramed victory last summer. She missed the cut again this week, 2 out of 3. I don’t like her chances of 2010 LPGA status via Futures Tour 2009. But as Hound Dog detailed in an excellent post last week, the Corona event is vital toward reshuffling priority status for the remainder of 2009. I’m not sure Welch realized that, if indeed she pulled her name from Corona consideration. Maybe the LPGA needs a counselor, along with someone to figure out whether or not a Q School playoff is necessary. All it would take is two decent rounds to make the cut next week and suddenly the opportunities for 2009 can change dramatically. Hound Dog estimated 8-10 tournament chances as opposed to 1 or 2.

Sure enough, Kang and Choi moved upward into the field later in the week, as the natural pull outs occurred. Today the player who moved into Welch’s slot as 3rd alternate, Kathryn Imrie, was also bumped into the Corona field.

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but...

…if Welch is missing FT cuts, what’re the odds she’ll make an LPGA cut? If her game has deteriorated to the point she’s just looking to get her confidence back and have a chance to play 3 rounds instead of 2, why not commit to the FT Texas swing and avoid the distractions that come with international travel and a bigger event? The way the FT pays out, you get a runner-up or a win and you pass a lot of people on the money list, especially this early in the season. Kang and Choi are among the top talents on the FT, but they’re going to have trouble making the top 5 on the money list if they bypass too many FT events for LPGA ones. Still, as they’re both playing well, it makes sense to roll the dice this week for them. But probably not for Welch. I think they all made the calls that were right for them.

by The Constructivist on Apr 20, 2009 8:21 AM PDT reply actions

good point

especially when you consider that quite a few of the Corona entrants are FT regulars who obviously won’t be playing in Brownsville this week. Kim might have felt her chances to get back on track against a thinner FT field were better than against a thinner (but not as thin as usual for Corona) LPGA one.

AD’s comments were directed at Kim Welch but they also apply to Nicole Hage (who I directly Twittered to ask why she wasn’t entered at Morelia – no response) and Janell Howland, who also need to bolster their LPGA priority but weren’t entered this week.

by hound dog on Apr 20, 2009 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions

Like i said about the reshuffle

It makes sense that Shepley, Sheridan and Welch are passing up Mexico if they can only move up 3 spots max. On the other hand why is SY Choi even bothering to play Mexico being top dog at P-17 with the other not playing? She is #6 on the FT money list.

I have a feeling I am right on this one Dog. Sheridan not playing Mexico is Bizzare if she can climb as high as Burton’s spot with a top 15 ish finish.

Wow, seems like Q School all over again!!!!!!!

by Phil E. Blunts on Apr 20, 2009 3:24 PM PDT reply actions

Thanks for bumping my comment

I think everyone is giving too much credit to long term strategy regarding Futures Tour money list. Welch pulled her name at the beginning of last week, long before the opening 81. Her previous effort included a pair of 72s on the weekend. I don’t think she’s saddled with lack of confidence.

In my best guess, she saw her name not at the top of the alternate list and didn’t want to spend another week frustrated at not bumping into the tournament by that route. I believe she ended up #2 alternate at the opening event in Hawaii.

This situation wasn’t like Hawaii. It was 10 days beforehand, not a few days like SBS. Much more time and opportunity for other players to pull out. For one thing, at an isolated venue like Oahu the players are already on site early. Late travel to a different country, albeit not far away, presents different problems and dynamic. I always believed more players would pull out than typical for this tournament.

If you look at Welch’s answers to the rookie questions on LPGA.com, when they asked what tournament she was looking forward to, she said, “Which ever one is my first!”

That doesn’t sound like someone who would strategically skip a big circuit event. I don’t think she realized the alternate list had potential to change dramatically for the Corona, unlike previous events when it stayed mostly stagnant. Welch was also in a mid level alternate position several tournaments later, and again her situation did not change.

Last night I noticed several other players were strangely bypassing this event, the names already mentioned in this post. And Kathryn Imrie’s name is also gone, the player who I mentioned had inherited Welch’s spot on the alternate list last week. She was listed in the Corona field yesterday, but absent today.

by Awsi Dooger on Apr 20, 2009 11:23 PM PDT reply actions

Welch

If she knew anything about Corona last year she would have felt pretty good about getting in. Maybe, like some us she misunderstood the reshuffle and talked to the LPGA or maybe another player who knew what is being reshuffled.

With what is happening this week i believe you can only move up in your priority. Not jump up to Brandie Burton if you win the 7 week high priority money list title. To many players in Priority 16-20 are not playing. Could it be possible that all of those players have no idea how the shuffle works? or found out to late to enter. Truth is Yes.

I have a feeling unless Nicole Hage tweets back Dog we won’t find out until the field is announced for Sybase.

by Phil E. Blunts on Apr 21, 2009 9:57 AM PDT reply actions

there are other issues, though

Like your health and safety. I think anyone can go overboard with paranoia on these fronts, but for some young Americans it may be easier to commit to Texas than the other side of the Rio Grande.

Speaking of health, did you see the story about Becky Lucidi getting a pacemaker?!

http://www.duramedfuturestour.com/NewsRoom.asp?page=Releases/WR042009.ssi

by The Constructivist on Apr 21, 2009 11:09 PM PDT reply actions