Solheim Cupdate

Did you think I wasn't ever going to mention this year's Solheim Cup?  We are just over a month away from the three-day international competition in Sugar Grove, Illinois and there are just a handful of events remaining for players to earn points to make the teams outright.

Players earn points by finishing in the Top 20 at LPGA and LET events.  Evian and the British Open will award points toward both teams.  This .pdf shows the points breakdown for the American and European teams:

Solheim points distribution
Note that the U.S. point allocation is doubled for the British Open while the European allocation is the same for these two events. 

Let's start with the Americans.  The top ten players in points automatically make the team.  The maximum points that an American player can earn over the two events is 180 (60 for winning Evian, 120 for winning the British).  Since Natalie Gulbis is currently in 10^th place with 201 points, this makes it theoretically possible for these Americans to still make the Solheim team:

All of the players behind Lindley are not at Evian so they cannot catch Gulbis.  The three players in bold are also not in the Evian field so the maximum points they can earn is 120, but only if they are in the British field.  That field has not been released yet as far as I can find.  Assuming they are all in the field at Lytham, these 13 players are the only ones with a chance to automatically make the team.

Can any of them do it?  Diaz and Prammanasudh are playing very poorly, Hurst and Inkster haven't been great shakes of late and Park has been fighting back troubles.  I wouldn't completely rule out Michelle Wie but do the math - needing 68 points to pass Gulbis, winning Evian wouldn't be enough and finishing second in the British wouldn't be enough.

Gulbis is the only player within 60 points of any of these players so I am calling Brittany Lincicome (in ninth place with 250 points) and everyone above her a lock for the U.S. Solheim team.  Only a few specific very-low-chance scenarios could knock Brittany out - one would be Laura Diaz or Stacy Prammanasudh winning the British while Gulbis won Evian or finished second in the British all while Brittany earned no points (or very few) in either.  You get the picture.

If we assume that Gulbis is the tenth automatic qualifier, who would the two captain's picks be?  One is a no-brainer - Juli Inkster.  The chances of Beth Daniel resigning her position to become a wrestling promoter would dwarf those of Inkster not being picked for this, probably her final Solheim team.  If Laura Diaz was playing worth a damn, she'd be a fine pick.  Stacy P played well in Sweden two years ago as did Pat Hurst, and Pat has a fine career Solheim record, but I'm not sure I'd take either over Michelle Wie.  As long as Wie doesn't completely bomb out in her next two starts, I would pick her.

Being an equal-opportunity blogger - what about the European team?  The top five in points automatically make the team and as they stand right now, Gwladys Nocera is the only one I would call a lock.  Mainly because the next six players are relatively close together but also because they have three events left to earn points (the LET is playing in Spain this week).  Those players could earn a maximum 150 points from the three events and none of them besides Nocera has yet collected 150 points.  So virtually anything could happen with those other four automatic slots.  I'll go out on a limb and say Tania Elosegui, Laura Davies and Suzann Pettersen will be automatic qualifiers while the final slot will go to Martina Eberl, Diana Luna, Melissa Reid or somebody who plays great over the last three events.  Pettersen has a safety net because of her world ranking - the top four LET members in the Rolex Rankings who didn't get in on points will make the team.  Right now those four are Helen Alfredsson, Anna Nordqvist, Maria Hjorth and Karen Stupples.  Sophie Gustafson is four positions behind Stupples so she could jump in but given her recent play, I don't expect that.  The final three players are captain's picks (Alison Nicholas is the captain for Team Europe) and not being an LET expert, I don't have any real insight who might be picked.  My best guesses on the captain's picks would be Gustafson (or Stupples if Sophie passes her on the Rolex chart), Iben Tinning (who has been on the last couple of teams and is in the Top 10 in points) and the newly-returned-from-maternity-leave Catriona Matthew.

I'll wait for the teams to be officially announced before offering up my predictions of how badly the Americans will beat the Europeans...did I say that out loud?