Solheim Cupdate - One Event To Go

The Evian Masters results did nothing but solidify the previous American Solheim point standings while the European team standings changed significantly.  Sophie Gustafson's second place finish was worth 45 points and moved her into fifth place (the top 5 automatically make the team) in the standings for Team Europe, trailing Gwladys Nocera, Tania Elosegui, Diana Luna and Laura Davies.  Suzann Pettersen is two points behind Gustafson (but a lock for the team because of her world ranking), Martina Eberl is 3.35 points back in seventh place and Melissa Reid is 12.12 points behind in eighth.  Becky Brewerton actually dropped one position in the standings from 10^th to 11^th (Helen Alfredsson passed her) but earned 12 points to close to within 15.11 of fifth place.  The four Rolex Ranking spots on the team would currently be filled by Pettersen, Alfredsson, Anna Nordqvist and Maria Hjorth.  I still believe that Karen Stupples and Catriona Matthew are the most likely captain's picks.  Now that Gustafson has virtually locked up a spot by way of her #33 world ranking, I believe that the final captain's pick will come down to Eberl, Reid or Brewerton with Iben Tinning now a very long shot.  If pressed to choose, I would say Melissa Reid.

Stacy Lewis was the only American player to collect Solheim points at Evian who (in my estimation) didn't already have a spot locked up.  Lewis finished T17 and collected 7.5 points, which wasn't enough to keep her chances alive to make the team.  #20 Allison Fouch is not in the field this week so obviously she is out of the running too.  Here are the ten players who could still climb into the Top 10 by their performance in the British Open (maximum 120 points):

Since you can't get this stuff anywhere else, here are most of the possible permutations (many of them assuming that the player in question doesn't get passed by somebody currently behind her):

1)  If Natalie Gulbis doesn't finish in the WBO Top 20, any of those 10 players could make the team by winning.

2)  If Gulbis doesn't finish in the Top 20, Laura Diaz could make the team by finishing at least tenth14th, Stacy Prammanasudh could make it by finishing at least eighth 11th, Pat Hurst could make it by finishing at least sixth ninth and Juli Inkster could make it by finishing at least second fifth.

3)  Michele Redman is eliminated if Gulbis finishes 20^th or better, Irene Cho is out if Gulbis finishes 18^th or better, Meaghan Francella is done is Gulbis finishes 9^th or better, and Wendy Ward and Michelle Wie are gone if Gulbis finishes 4^th or better.  The rest can only be eliminated if Gulbis wins.

4)  If Gulbis finishes fifth or better, Brittany Lincicome would drop to tenth place (unless of course she earned some points herself) and the last three players could not make it even if they won the WBO.  Also under that scenario, none of the 11-17 players could catch Lincicome unless they won the WBO.

5)  The only way Lincicome could get knocked out is if she finishes 19^th or worse, Jane Park (or any of the four ahead of her) wins and Gulbis finishes at least fifth.  Those two would make the team and Lincicome would fall to 11^th place.

I guesstimate the chance of any of those scenarios occurring at less than 3%, which means that I believe Gulbis is 97% sure of being in and Lincicome is 99.995% sure of being in.  And I still believe Juli Inkster and Michelle Wie are going to be the captain's picks.