Solheim Teams Evaluation

Now that we know the 24 players who will make up the Solheim Cup teams for Europe and the U.S.A., let's take a look at how they shape up.

Since my own rating system doesn't take LET results into account, I'll defer to the Rolex Rankings and Golfweek's Sagarin Performance Index to help us handicap the players.  Both set of numbers are up-to-date, although the latest Rolex Rankings were probably not available to the captains prior to yesterday's announcements.  Taking those numbers, I subjectively listed each team member in descending order and included a few who didn't make it (they are marked with *) at the bottom for perspective.

Let's start with who made (or didn't make) the teams.  For Europe, I was very surprised and disappointed that Karen Stupples wasn't selected by Captain Alison Nicholas.  Two big reasons that Stupples got shut out: 1) she didn't play nearly enough LET events to qualify on points or be eligible for a Rolex pick, and 2) neither did Anna Nordqvist.  One captain's pick had to be used on Nordqvist - a captain isn't going to leave a reigning major champion off the team.  That left two picks, which Nicholas used on Janice Moodie and Becky Brewerton.  I see the rationale for selecting Moodie over Stupples.  SPI rates players over the last 12 months and my own system also rates Moodie higher for 2009 so Janice has played better this year.  But picking Brewerton doesn't make much sense no matter how you look at the numbers.  Stupples hasn't played very well since her appendectomy back in April so I guess that's why she was passed over (pretty crappy reason to snub her, if you ask me).  But if I was going to leave Karen off of the team I would have picked Melissa Reid instead of Brewerton.

Juli Inkster and Michelle Wie were the American captain's picks, and Beth Daniel would have rightly caught hell had she chosen differently.  Wendy Ward is the only player who should have even a sliver of complaint about being left out.  Inkster's rankings could have been double what they are and she would still have been a good pick because of her outstanding match-play record.

As for the Solheim matchup itself...it looks kinda lopsided, doesn't it?  Everybody on the U.S. team is a Top 50 player while the Europeans couldn't possibly claim more than seven.  The U.S. has three of the world's Top 10 players.  Europe has one.  It's a larger overall talent advantage to the one the Americans had two years ago, except this time they won't be playing in Sweden in 50-degree temperatures and this time Annika Sorenstam won't be available to play five times in three days.  The only factor I see that gives Team Europe much hope is they have three players with winning Solheim records over ten matches or more - Pettersen, Matthew and Davies - while the Americans only have two - Inkster and Creamer.  Team U.S.A. does have two other players with winning records who haven't played ten matches - Christina Kim and Natalie Gulbis - while Europe has none.  The small sample sizes for four or five players on each side make them wildcards as far as match play is concerned.  There is one other factor that may favor Team Europe - they seem to have a couple more long hitters than the U.S. does.  Which at Rich Harvest Farms with its 6670-yard layout may help them out, unless Captain Daniel sets up the tee boxes to combat some of that length (I believe she has that prerogative).

If this wasn't match play (where most anybody can be beaten on any given day), I would predict a rout for Team U.S.A.  As it is, the only way Europe wins is if they take at least a 10-6 lead into Sunday and hang on for dear life in the singles matches.  If they are trailing going to Sunday, the final count could get ugly.  Given the home-course advantage and as tough as they played two years ago in Annika's backyard, I predict the Americans will win by a score of 18-10.