Fluke Victories

A couple of seasons have passed since I updated my Fluke Victory list.  For those unfamiliar with this exercise, I've researched back to the 1990 season and found the 20 most unlikely victories on the LPGA Tour - unlikely in the respect that these players showed very little tendency to contend over their careers outside of one big week in the sun.  I only went back to 1990 because it isn't really fair to make this comparison across the history of the Tour and frankly, there are enough players you've never heard of already on this list.

To be considered for the Top 20, a player must have only one career victory, a low percentage of career Top 10s, few second- or third-place finishes and a high percentage of missed cuts.  The active players are in ALL CAPS.  I've omitted comments on many of the retired players - if you would like more info on them or why they are listed where they are, please refer to my January 2008 list.

1.  HILARY LUNKE  2003 U.S. Open

Still the undisputed champion.  Lunke only made five starts over the last two seasons and missed the cut in all of them, driving her Missed Cut Percentage up to 55.8 (which is NOT the highest of these 20 players, only fourth).  She has received a medical extension each of the last two years and still has good Priority status (#92) for 2010.  As she was two years ago, Hilary is the only victorious player with 50+ career starts who has no other Top 10 finishes.  Another player could achieve that dubious distinction sometime during 2010 (see #14).

2.  Tina Purtzer (Tombs)  1990 Jamie Farr

Tina has the highest Missed Cut Percentage by far of any victorious player that I have found - 64.9%.  Her nearest competitor is at 57.9 (#5 Jennifer Wyatt).  She also has the second lowest Top 10 Percentage (0.9%, to #1 Lunke) of any player on this list.  The top five players on the list are at the same position as they were two years ago.

3.  Tina Fischer  2001 Asahi International

4.  Melissa McNamara  1991 Stratton Mountain

5.  Jennifer Wyatt  1992 Crestar

6.  BIRDIE KIM  2005 U.S. Open

Birdie was at #12 after collecting two Top 10 finishes in 2007, including a runner-up at the Mitchell TOC.  That season had me thinking that she was on her way off the list but her last two years have been awful - no Top 10s and 18 MCs in 31 starts.  Kim is now sixth in lowest Top 10% (3.3%) and seventh in MC% (54.2%).

7.  Laurel Kean  2000 State Farm

Kean is the only Monday qualifier in LPGA history ever to win that tournament.

8.  Lisa Kiggens  1994 Rochester

9.  Kathryn Marshall (Imrie)  1995 Jamie Farr

10.  KATE GOLDEN  2001 State Farm

Kate had a terrible 2008, missing the cut in 16 of her 20 starts.  This placed her so far down the Priority list that she only got into four events in 2009.  Golden is now tenth in lowest Top 10% and ninth in MC% but she is the first player on this list with more than one career runner-up finish.

11.  Nanci Bowen  1995 Kraft Nabisco

12.  Cathy Johnston-Forbes  1990 du Maurier

Cathy made one start in 2008 and missed the cut.  I believe she has officially retired.

13.  Barb Thomas (Whitehead)  1995 Cup Noodles

14.  EUNJUNG YI  2009 Jamie Farr

The first addition to this updated Fluke Victories list won the '09 Farr by defeating Morgan Pressel in a one-hole playoff.  Yi has no other Top 10 finishes in her 35 career starts which places her fifth on the lowest Top 10% chart and only 15 starts away from joining the exclusive Lunke Club.  Her Missed Cut Percentage of 34.3% certainly isn't good but it's not one of the thirty worst.  Admittedly - it's probably a little too soon to be proclaiming hers as one of the Top 20 Flukes but if she doesn't EVER collect another Top 10, she will certainly belong on the list.

15.  LOUISE FRIBERG  2008 MasterCard

It really pains me to have to add Louise to the Fluke list but I have no choice.  In 46 career starts, she has three Top 10s (a percentage not quite among the 20 worst) but no other Top 5 finishes and 26 missed cuts.  Her MC% (56.5) is the third-worst of all the players I surveyed.  Like Yi, Friberg hasn't quite reached 50 career starts so this may be premature but for now...

16.  Julie Larsen (Piers)  1995 Edina Realty

17.  SILVIA CAVALLERI  2007 Corona

In 37 starts over the last two years, Cavalleri finished in the Top 10 once (T5 at the '08 Longs Drugs) but missed 21 cuts.  I almost moved her ahead of Larsen but Silvia's career MC% isn't quite high enough (39.4 to 43.3) for the other factors to override it.       

18.  Tracy Kerdyk  1995 JAL Big Apple

19.  Cindy Schreyer  1993 Sun-Times

20.  Helen Dobson  1993 State Farm

Dishonorable Mention:

Carolyn Hill  1994 McCall's

MOIRA DUNN  2004 Giant Eagle

SUNG AH YIM  2006 Florida's Natural

Joan Pitcock  1996 Jamie Farr

Nicole Perrot  2005 Longs Drugs

Honorable Mention:

JIMIN KANG  2005 Corning Classic

Had Kang only maintained her previous output she would have fallen off the Fluke list automatically thanks to Eunjung Yi and Louise Friberg.  But Jimin made sure her name was dropping off by collecting four Top 10s in 52 starts over the last two seasons and missing "only" 12 cuts - numbers which improved both of her percentages.  Now that (hopefully) her physical woes are behind her, she'll perform in a way that will make her Corning victory a sign of things to come rather than be regarded as a fluke.