What a difference a year makes.  Last year at this time we were looking at the incoming LPGA rookie class as possibly the greatest one ever and they made a good run at it.  This year...not so much.

In 2010 we have no three-time winner and major champion leading the rookie pack, and no teenage phenom looking to validate the incredible expectations of the media.  We have our usual group of Futures Tour and Q-School graduates.  But don't sell this bunch short - in recent seasons even an average rookie crop usually yields at least three Top 40 players.  The Constructivist has already done an outstanding job of handicapping the rookies and I encourage you to check out his work on the subject as I couldn't possibly surpass it.

28 new players have Tour cards this year, although only 15 of them are guaranteed enough starts to make a plausible Rookie of the Year run.  Six others in Category 16 will have to get out of the gate quickly (as Anna Nordqvist did in 2009) in the few early starts available to them in order to give their positions a bump before the first Priority adjustment following Event #7 (State Farm, which amazingly isn't until June).  The remaining seven players in Cat-17 and 20 are so low on the list you'll be lucky to see them at all this year.

No wonder then that so many rookies and veterans alike will be doing double (or even triple) duty this season, having earned status on the Futures, LET and/or JLPGA circuits.  The LPGA's sparse early schedule enables a lot of opportunity for globe-trotting, and how each player handles the potential jet-lag remains to be seen.  Being a rookie on Tour is difficult enough.

So in the midst of this added uncertainty, I have evidence that one or two of the new players should display Top 30 talent but which ones?  With apologies to TC for relying mostly on his research, here's how I rank the rookies in order of each one's chances of winning Rookie of the Year:

1.  Amanda Blumenherst

Thanks to her NCAA exploits and the 2008 U.S. Amateur championship, Blumenherst is probably the most well-known of the 2010 rookies.  Her Futures Tour results in '09 weren't the greatest but she did finish second once in six starts and her scoring average was better than Tour leader Pernilla Lindberg (not enough rounds for Amanda to qualify).  Medaling at Q-School doesn't hurt her chances, either.  Her results may not totally come around until late in the season because of the erratic schedule but I believe she has the best chance to win ROY.

2.  Gwladys Nocera

Six months ago I would never have placed Nocera this high.  She had failed multiple times against LPGA competition.  Then came Solheim, where she was one of Europe's best players against America's best.  Merge that psychological boost with her fine LET resume and presto - a solid week at Q-School and decent Priority for 2010.  If she keeps her game together with good LET showings during the first half of the year, look out.

3.  Pernilla Lindberg

11^th on the Futures Tour money list in only ten starts, with the lowest scoring average on Tour.  With LET status, Pernilla will have some early-season action to help her stay sharp.

4.  Azahara Munoz

I would have put Munoz third because of her LET victory last October but didn't because she hasn't yet played an extended schedule on any tour.  This year, all indications are that she will be trying to play schedules on two tours so I put a little more emphasis on that factor.  Munoz' resume isn't too far removed from Blumenherst's, which makes this prediction (or is it that one?) a little more shaky.

5.  Mina Harigae

#1 on the Futures Tour last year with three victories.  While I agree with TC that Futures Tour success has only occasionally translated to immediate LPGA success, I must give Mina a reasonable chance to shine this year.  I especially don't agree with his statement about FT bombers showing more success than precision players (example - Seon Hwa Lee).  One of us should really study the history of that transition more because right now we're both just guessing.

Without any explanation whatsoever, here's how I rank the rest of the higher-priority 15:

6.  Marianne Skarpnord

7.  Jean Reynolds

8.  Beatriz Recari

9.  Misun Cho

10. Mariajo Uribe

11. Maria Hernandez

12. Il Hee Lee

13. Lisa Meldrum

14. Lucy Kim

15. Katie Kempter