What Can Past Rookie Performances Tell Us About the 2010 Rookies?
by hound dog on Jan 25, 2010 6:00 AM PST
7 comments
As I detailed in a post last Friday, there are three groups of players who are more likely than others to have successful rookie seasons - players who won an LPGA event the previous season as a non-member, reigning Futures Tour champions, and the first-place finishers at Q-School.
One non-member player won an LPGA event in 2009. However, Bo Bae Song has not elected to join the Tour - she would be a Category 7 member if she would - so she isn't even part of the 2010 rookie equation. I believe she has chosen to remain on the JLPGA Tour fulltime. Given the data I posted Friday, she would be my favorite to win Rookie of the Year - if only she were one.
The other two groups, while not as consistently successful, must be considered when judging ROY candidates. I had already made my 2010 rookie predictions but with this new data in hand, here are my revised choices:
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1. Amanda Blumenherst 2. Gwladys Nocera 3. Mina Harigae 4. Azahara Munoz 5. Pernilla Lindberg 6. Marianne Skarpnord 7. Jean Reynolds 8. Beatriz Recari 9. Maria Hernandez 10. Misun Cho 11. Mariajo Uribe 12. Lisa Meldrum 13. Katie Kempter 14. Il Hee Lee 15. Lucy Kim |
Blumenherst's Q-School win cements her #1 status. I almost moved Harigae (the FT champion) up to second but I really feel good about Nocera's chances, so third it is. I flip-flopped Munoz and Lindberg because of Azahara's T5 finish at Q-School (Pernilla was barely Top 20). For similar reasons I bumped up Hernandez, Meldrum and Kempter. Time will tell if these changes matter or not...
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It’s a good list…but you and Con are underestimating Jean Reynolds ! :-D I know Blumenherst has a boatload of talent, but one of the Nike videos on the groove change has Blumenhurst saying that she doesn’t think it will affect her at all because she compresses the ball. Guess she thinks the guys on the PGA Tour don’t ? If she believes she won’t be affected by the new grooves, she’s going to struggle from 100 yards in.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
Maybe so, but if Reynolds was so good why didn’t she beat out Harigae? A lot of people (myself included) thought Stacy Lewis was gonna set the world on fire because of her great ‘08 U.S. Open but that didn’t happen.
I would put Uribe in the Top 10...
although I don’t know who I would move out to make room for her. I’m not very familiar with 3 or 4 of the players in the list. I’m looking forward to seeing more of the ladies since Golf Channel is carrying more of the events this year. It may not be a perfect arrangement, but it sure beats the sporadic coverage the LPGA has been getting.
Mike Southern
www.ruthlessgolf.com
All good choices. I think any of the top 5 could pull off RoY, sorry CG. 8-)
I’ve watched very little Tour golf this year, so I haven’t seen a lot of shots hit. From what I have seen it doesn’t appear the groove change is making a huge difference. Scores haven’t ballooned. I think Blumenherst is still the one to beat.
Truth has a well-known liberal bias.
luckily for you – they haven’t started yet, so you haven’t missed anything.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
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