Quest For The Card - Update

32 players in the various money list races made the cut at Navistar, 48 did not.  The current money list posted at LPGA.com seems a little screwy (see #133 Adrienne White) but I'll assume the money totals are correct.  Here is how I see the bubble players' chances with one (and for some, two) not-quite-so-full-field event remaining to play. 

UPDATE:  I neglected to mention before that the season-ending Tour Championship will affect these races somewhat, especially the Top 80 race.  Its field will consist of 120 players, which will give many players one more chance to move up.  Even so, I still consider the players I've listed as Locks in each race to be assured of making that level.

First, the Race For #80:

LOCKS:

Moira Dunn, Sandra Gal, Irene Cho and Giulia Sergas (T15 at Navistar) are all $2500 or more ahead of the $70,000 mark so I consider them and everyone else at position 77 or higher to be Locks for the Top 80.

RELAXED:

#78 Mina Harigae finished T70 at Navistar and is just short of $72,000 earned.  Three players behind Mina would have to pass her at CVS for her to miss the Top 80.  Not likely.  If Harigae makes the cut, she becomes a Lock.

NERVOUS:

#79 Mindy Kim and #80 Becky Morgan are $1200 and $3200 short of $70,000 but their biggest concern is preventing anybody behind them from passing them this weekend.  Making the cut would alleviate most of the pressure.  If either misses the cut, she would most likely get passed.

SWEATING BULLETS:

Normally the players just outside the Top 80 going into the final "real" event would only be Nervous, but this year each of them is at least $3000 behind #80.  Each of these players not only must make the CVS cut, they probably need to finish in the Top 50.  #81 Kris Tamulis made the cut at Navistar but the T58 finish wasn't enough to bump her into a better category.  #82 Mi Hyun Kim missed the cut - she certainly can't afford that again this week.  #83 Jane Park needs another T36 finish like she got last weekend.  #84 Mariajo Uribe missed the cut and needs over $4000 to have any chance.

BACK AGAINST THE WALL:

The slope gets steep quickly right here.  #85 Lorie Kane needs at least $5000 this weekend, probably a couple thou more to make sure she passes those in front of her who earn money too.  That means a Top 35 finish is probably required.  #86 Eunjung Yi is skipping CVS (just like Navistar), relying on her 2009 victory to secure her 2011 status.  #87 Paige Mackenzie needs $11,000 - a Top 25 might be enough.

NEED A MIRACLE:

#88 Soo-Yun Kang is not in the CVS field so she'll be in Category 11 next year.  #89 Louise Stahle needs over $15,000 to have any chance, $17,000 to be reasonably sure.  Louise and everybody below her needs at least a Top 15 finish.

The Race For #100:

LOCKS:

Laura Diaz (T12) and Louise Friberg (T29) moved ahead of the $39,500 target, so they and everybody else from position 96 on up are considered Locks.

RELAXED:

#97 Rachel Hetherington, who is presumably enjoying retirement like so many of us would like to be.

NERVOUS:

#98 Alison Walshe nearly got the Top 15 at Navistar that I thought she needed (T16 to be exact) to rescue herself from the Need A Miracle crowd.  She should be safe if she makes the CVS cut.  She's already passed one big obstacle - she got into the field via Monday qualifying.  #99 Anja Monke is apparently not playing any more LPGA events this year, so this category doesn't quite cover her.  #100 Gloria Park (MC at Navistar) is just $1117 ahead of the pack.  Without a made cut, she has only a slim chance of making it.  With one, Gloria has the advantage of having the inactive Hetherington and Monke right in front of her and #101 Tamie Durdin (who is playing in Japan again this week) right behind to buffer things somewhat.  Even so, she must guard against having two other players pass her up.  And as you will see, there are quite a few who have a decent chance to do that.

SWEATING BULLETS:

#102 Stephanie Louden (T46 at Navistar) and #103 Taylor Leon (MC) are both about $1000 behind Gloria Park.  For both of them, a made cut while Park misses might be good enough but if they both make the cut, both need to also pass Monke or one of them is going to miss out.  Leon is in the CVS field but since Louden is only the fourth-alternate, I probably should have Stephanie listed as Need A Miracle.  #104 Iben Tinning is skipping CVS like she did Navistar.  #105 Leta Lindley (MC) is $2500 behind Park but she needs at least a Top 50 to have a reasonable chance of passing enough players.

BACK AGAINST THE WALL:

#106 Ilmi Chung (MC), #107 Julieta Granada (MC), #108 Samantha Richdale (T63), #109 Allison Hanna (MC) and #110 Silvia Cavalleri (75) are all in the CVS and need $4000-5000 to catch Gloria Park.  They probably need a Top 35 finish to be sure of getting there.  #111 Mhairi McKay (T36) is the third-alternate while #112 Pernilla Lindberg (MC) and #113 Allison Fouch (T46) are in the field - these three might need a Top 30 to reach the Top 100.  #115 Sarah Lee (MC) needs at least a Top 25.  #114 Paola Moreno (T29) is the fifth-alternate and #116 Ashli Bunch (MC) is the second-alternate - if they are lucky enough to get in, they also need a Top 25.

NEED A MIRACLE:

From #117 Jill McGill (MC) on down, everybody needs a Top 20 or better to have any hope of a Top 100 spot.

As for the Race For #125, it all hinges on whether the player made the CVS field.  #123 Nicole Castrale is out with an injury.  #121 Beth Bader, #122 Misun Cho, #124 Aree Song and #125 Jean Reynolds are playing, so for them, making the cut will probably seal the deal.  Bader and Cho are probably safe even if they don't make the cut.  Song and Reynolds have to worry about these players passing them up:

One other note - Cindy Lacrosse has already clinched Cat-9 status for next year but if she moves into the Top 125, she'll knock somebody else out even though she herself doesn't need that position.  Leta Lindley is in a similar situation - her 2008 victory guarantees Cat-6 but a move into the Top 100 would knock out another player.