Quest For The Card Update

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

Updated with field changes Monday morning, 11-29

Now that the final field for the LPGA Tour Championship has been announced, we can accurately assess the chances for the bubble players to improve their Priority Status for 2011.  This year, the TC used the current money list to set the field, which IMO kinda undermines the whole theory behind the Priority system - am I right?  I mean, if you're going to all this trouble in building a system to establish qualification for your fields, why abandon that system for the event which finalizes those qualifications?  Whatever....

The 120-player field extends all the way down to Player #146 on the money list, Katie Kempter.  UPDATE:  #147 Christi Cano made the field when Angela Park withdrew.  #148 Tanya Dergal and #149 Lisa Strom made it when Gloria Park and Ilmi Chung pulled out.  This means that all three races - Top 80, Top 100 and Top 125 - will be affected by next Sunday's results.  When I wrote my earlier QFTC posts, I knew that the Tour Championship would have some bearing on the first two races but I didn't expect the Top 125 to change much.  Au contraire!  To remind everyone what they are playing for, the Top 80 gets Category-1 status (access to most limited-field events), Top 100 gets Category-11 (access to all full-field events) and Top 125 gets Category-15 (access to most full-fields early in the season, but will slip down if they don't play well early in 2011).

Here is how the three races stack up and what the bubble players need to do in each:

Top 80:

#77 Helen Alfredsson is $7800 ahead of #81 Jane Park and would have to be passed by four players to fall out, so I consider her a Lock.  #78 Irene Cho is $4700 clear and in good shape because after Park, there's a gap of over $5000 back to #82 Becky Morgan.  That relatively big gap will make it tougher than usual for three players to pass Irene.  #79 Mina Harigae is not quite $4000 ahead and really needs to make the cut to feel safe because only two players have to pass her.  This year's real bubble player is #80 Moira Dunn.  The player in the final position is always especially vulnerable because it only takes one player behind to have a Big Surprise finish to knock her out.  Despite her $2200 edge, Moira absolutely needs to make the cut so she can either fight off that up-and-comer or pass Harigae or Cho.

The players who must make the cut to have any chance are #81 Park, #82 Morgan (needs a Top 30 finish), #83 Mi Hyun Kim (Top 30), #84 Mindy Kim (Top 30), #85 Sarah Kemp (Top 20), #89 Eunjung Yi (Top 15), #90 Paige Mackenzie (Top 15) and #91 Louise Stahle (Top 15).  Everyone further down needs at least a Top 10 to make the grade.

Top 100:

#97 Louise Friberg is $5800 ahead of #101 so she would be a Lock for Cat-11 even if her 2008 victory hadn't already secured Cat-6.  #98 Sarah Lee is up by $3500 and must prevent three players from passing.  A made cut would Lock her in but Sarah's only done that six times in 16 events this year.  #99 Allison Hanna and #100 Silvia Cavalleri are only $102 apart so consider them in similar watercraft - they are both less than $500 clear and missing the cut would probably doom either one.  This is true even though #101 Rachel Hetherington has retired - there are plenty of hungry golfers lined up to take her place.  The next five four who are playing - Alison Walshe, Julieta Granada, Samantha Richdale, Pernilla Lindberg and Gloria Park - are all within $2000 so each could make it by merely making the cut.  #108 Tamie Durdin is not playing (still in Japan I reckon).  #109 Stephanie Louden, #110 Taylor Leon and #111 Ilmi Chung need about $7000 to have a chance (Top 45 or so).  #112 Iben Tinning isn't playing - I'm wondering why she went to Q-School last fall given the few 2010 starts she's made stateside.  $10,000 is what #113 Ilhee Lee, #114 Mhairi McKay and #115 Allison Fouch need - a Top 35 should do it.  The next three - Paola Moreno, Jill McGill and Libby Smith - need a Top 30 finish.  For Ashli Bunch, Lisa Meldrum and everyone on down, a Top 25 or better will be needed.

Top 125:

Let's approach this one from the bottom up.  Fourteen Sixteen players not currently in the Top 125 are playing in the Tour Championship.  #149 Strom, #148 Dergal, #146 Katie Kempter and #144 Angela Park #147 Christi Cano could reach #125 with a Top 20 finish ($16,000 or more).  Think back a couple of years - could you have imagined me writing that sentence in reference to Angela back then?  #141 Meredith Duncan, #139 Reilley Rankin, #138 Tania Elosegui and #137 Jin Young Pak need a Top 35 ($10,000).  #136 Adrienne White and #135 Nicole Hage need a Top 40.  #133 Hye Jung Choi and #132 Anna Rawson need a Top 45.  The rest of the outsiders - Leah Wigger, Cindy Lacrosse, Jean Reynolds and Misun Cho - could get there just by making the cut.

Holding this group off will be #124 Jimin Jeong and #125 Beth Bader - Jeong has a $400 margin, Bader only $54!  If neither makes the cut, they are probably sunk.  #123 Aree Song (yes - that Aree Song!) has a $1700 cushion.  I gauge her chances to be about 50/50 if she misses the cut.  #122 Yoo Kyeong (Lucy) Kim is less than $50 ahead of Song but the insurance of the extra player behind makes her probably 70/30 to stick even with an MC.  I'm proclaiming #121 Mikaela Parmlid and above to be Locked in.  Which is a good thing for Mikaela, since she's not playing.

There you have it.  During the Tour Championship, I'll be focusing on these players quite a bit as their battles deserve our attention alongside the great races for the Player of the Year, Vare Trophy and Money titles.  It should be a busy blogging weekend!