2010 Predictions Revisited

What's the use of making predictions if you don't go back after the season and review them?  Last winter I listed my preseason Top 30, my leading Rookie of the Year candidates and made a few general predictions about the Tour.  How did I do?

As for the general stuff, the first half of my initial prediction got blown away by the first weekend in May when Ai Miyazato won for the third time.  She won twice more before the end of summer.  The second half was dead on as exactly five players won at least twice - Miyazato, Cristie Kerr, Yani Tseng, Na Yeon Choi and Jiyai Shin.  Coincidentally, those were the five players still in the Player of the Year hunt during the final week.  My second prediction was correct - exactly 15 different players won events in 2010.  One-point-five out of two ain't bad.

The next three were just wrong.  The trend of first-time major champions did not continue as only the U.S. Open champion (Paula Creamer) was a first-timer.  Creamer is already showing signs that the U.S. Open jinx may be broken.  The Tour's scoring average was 72.90, not lower than last year's 72.73.  Going into the Tour Championship, the average was only 0.06 higher than in 2009 but the Open-like conditions at Grand Cypress stomped on it.

My Park Prediction was very wrong as Jane was the only one who made 15 starts and Grace was the only one with a Top 10.  Mi Hyun Kim didn't make my Top 70 while Stephanie Louden did so my Maternity Prediction didn't pan out.  Maria Hjorth returned from her leave in spring 2009 so she doesn't qualify.  My next-to-last prediction was facetious but I'll accept being right until somebody proves me wrong!  And the final one was half-right - Creamer won her first major but Michelle Wie did not.

I did ok with my rookie predictions as my first four all finished in the Top 70.  The first three - Amanda Blumenherst, Gwladys Nocera and Mina Harigae - all finished in the 60s but #4 Azahara Munoz wound up 28^th and clutching the Rolex Rookie Award.  #8 Beatriz Recari was the biggest surprise, winning CVS to become the only rookie winner of 2010.  Of the other rookies I listed, only #11 Mariajo Uribe did enough to threaten the Top 70.

When discussing my preseason Top 30, you have to throw out my #1 pick Lorena Ochoa.  I guess I could have predicted she would retire or falter but I'm not going to penalize myself for that.  I will accept being somewhat wrong about Creamer - I knew going in about her physical problems (although not about this particular ailment) and with injuries, them's the breaks.  Besides, she did finish in the Top 10.  Aside from Paula and barely leaving Tseng outside my Top 10, the top of my list came out very close to real life.  Amongst the teens I overrated Brittany Lang, Kristy McPherson, Seon Hwa Lee, Vicky Hurst, Lindsey Wright and to some extent Maria Hjorth.  A few of my 20s were way off - Paige Mackenzie was a flier that never got off the ground.  I underestimated the seasons of Morgan Pressel, Amy Yang, Katherine Hull, Brittany Lincicome and Jee Young Lee.  I should get some credit for labeling Inbee Park as an Honorable Mention, right?  But along with most of my Top 10, I pretty much nailed (give or take a handful of spots) Michelle Wie, Sun Young Yoo and Karrie Webb while Angela Stanford and Anna Nordqvist weren't too far off.  I'll leave it to somebody else (hello, TC?) to calculate exactly how well I did but I think the 2010 preseason list was one of my better efforts.