Approach Factor - Revisited
A little over a year ago, I came up with the idea that the relationship between a player's ability to reach the Green In Regulation and her driving ability could be measured. I wanted to generate a number where a player would rate highly if she was either poor at driving and good in GIR, or if she was good at driving and great in GIR. I also wanted lower ratings for the opposite tendencies. When I was first thinking about it, I couldn't come up with a reasonable formula to generate a number so I merely compared the players' rankings in the two categories - a second-rate method at best.
After some very helpful discussions this week with Tatkins and Ruthless Mike, I came up with a basic formula and tinkered around with it until the results were satisfactory. Here then, is my newest version of Approach Factor:
GIR * (170-TD)
Before I show you the results, I should explain the theory behind the formula. The second factor is designed to deliver a number near 100. Total Driving numbers range from about 75 to 65 (although the poorest drivers often sink to around 60). The usual average number for a season's worth of data is about 69 but I decided to make the constant's target 70 for simplicity's sake. TD is subtracted from 170 because I need the factor to decrease as TD increases. This creates an "inverse" value of TD, so to speak.
The link above is to the spreadsheet which shows the results for all 150 players for 2009. I've included the player's ranking in Total Driving and GIR to help show how the progression works downwards. For example, Ai Miyazato and Angela Stanford each reached GIR at about the same rate, .716. Since Stanford ranked second in TD and Miyazato ranked 11th, Ai rates higher in Approach Factor. Here are the Top 20 players along with their respective rankings in Total Driving and GIR:
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# 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. |
Player Wendy Ward Paula Creamer Juli Inkster Cristie Kerr In-Kyung Kim Shiho Oyama Maria Hjorth Karrie Webb Michelle Wie Sun Young Yoo Suzann Pettersen Kris Tamulis Pat Hurst Na Yeon Choi Yani Tseng Catriona Matthew Brittany Lincicome Brittany Lang Ai Miyazato Kristy McPherson |
AF 73.64 70.94 70.58 70.53 70.30 70.26 69.76 69.71 69.53 69.16 69.09 69.02 68.98 68.69 68.68 68.65 68.62 68.56 68.40 68.28 |
TD-GIR 96-3 6-1 73-17 5-2 37-7 87-20 8-4 28-9 74-21 9-6 16-10 95-36 76-25 20-14 15-11 68-29 80-33 4-5 11-13 14-16 |
Ward ranks #1 by a wide margin because she finished third in GIR despite a TD ranking of #96. As you can see, most of the Top 20 improved their ranking between the two stats. The first exception is Brittany Lang, who dropped from fourth in TD to fifth in GIR. Lang is ranked highly even so because, in my opinion, maintaining a Top 5 position in GIR is a difficult task even if the player started from a Top 5 position in TD. On down the line this stance is maintained - Miyazato and McPherson are documented above, Lorena Ochoa fell from TD #1 to GIR #8 and is ranked #28, Angela Stanford fell from TD #2 to GIR #12 and is ranked #36. Keep in mind, though - while I'm using the players' rankings in the two stats to describe how Approach Factor is designed, the raw numbers themselves generate the AF number. Now let's look at the Bottom 10:
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# 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. |
Player Minea Blomqvist Young Kim Becky Lucidi Audra Burks Aree Song Dorothy Delasin Young Jo Jeanne Cho-Hunicke Michelle Ellis Liselotte Neumann |
AF 59.00 58.91 58.84 57.29 55.78 55.69 55.46 54.30 54.08 52.84 |
TD-GIR 133-142 99-137 10-117 126-144 144-147 150-148 149-149 125-146 91-145 148-150 |
You may wonder why Becky Lucidi wouldn't be last, given that she fell so far from her tenth-place TD standing. The reason - the players below her had much worse GIR ratings (all at least .050 worse) than Becky. It hardly matters though - whether you rank #143 or #150, your approach shots must have been very poor.
I must admit that Approach Factor doesn't actually measure how well a player executes approach shots. It only uses two unrelated measurements to estimate how well one gets from Point A (after the tee shot) to Point B (on the green). Tatkins is currently mining the numbers for ways of measuring that ability more directly. On that task I wish him much luck, for I have not found any in that arena.
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4 comments
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Comments
I think it will be difficult to say more with this formula unless...
you have and can add stats for “distance from the hole.” As it stands, GIR only tells you that a player stopped the ball somewhere on the green.
Suppose, to use two players you talked about, Miyazato is leaving herself only an (average) 15-foot putt, while Ward is leaving a 47-footer. In that case, I think you could argue that Miyazato is actually making far better approach shots than Ward.
The point would be even more dramatic if you compare Ward with Tamulis. They are nearly identical in TD, but Tamulis is much lower rankwise in GIR. Still, if Tamulis were leaving a 15-footer to Ward’s 47, then you could argue that Tamulis might be a better “approacher.”
Without some way to incorporate “proximity to the hole” (I’ll be surprised if the LPGA keeps that stat), I don’t see how you can make that kind of determination… unless you can use the “GIR putting average” stat. It wouldn’t tell you how close they hit their approach, but it’s unlikely that a player will consistently sink long putts. If their putting average is high, it’s probably because they hit the ball close.
With that caveat, I think your concept is brilliant — it’s a great way to measure how well the player hits approach shots from various lies, just like you and Hound Dog were talking about.
Mike Southern
www.ruthlessgolf.com
More LPGA stats would be great.
The problem is that the LPGA does not have the money for keeping stats like the PGA does. Ruthless Mike you do have a good feel for what we want to accomplish with the Frankenstats. So you are as crazy as Hound Dog and I, or maybe we aren’t so crazy after all.
Thanks. Some of my friends would say I'm crazier...
but that’s another post altogether! ;-D
Mike Southern
www.ruthlessgolf.com

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