2011 Preseason Rankings

Several folks have already weighed in elsewhere with their entries in the 2011 Prognostication Derby and it is past time for me to do so.  I tore myself away from things supposedly-more-important this morning and filled out my own Top 30 list.  Rookies are in bold, non-members in italics.  Notes are below the jump:

I picked Shin first because even with a mid-season appendectomy, she nearly won it last year.  Similarly, Creamer is fourth because she managed a Top 10 season despite playing only half of it.  Frankly, anybody in the first six is a bona fide Player of the Year candidate and the ones immediately behind them are literally one step away.

Amy Yang is my Top 10 breakthrough player this year.  It sure felt good listing Jee Young Lee at #12 - shades of 2007! - even if it came at the expense of dropping Inbee Park a notch.  I wanted to put Lexi Thompson at #17 or #18 but TC's criteria for judging the Derby includes the LPGA money list, which will omit Thompson because she is not a member.  My Top 30 flier is Gwladys Nocera, who was fourth in Total Driving and 25^th in GIR last year.  Decent improvement on her #76 ranking in Total Putting (a year's familiarity with the greens, maybe?) could be the charm for Gwladys.  Actually, the players beyond #24 are ALL fliers to some extent.  As I stated in my Player Profile series, the dropoff in 2010 performance between the players in the teens and twenties was significant.  Furthermore, there's just not much difference at all these days between a player ranked #25 and one ranked #35.

For that reason and the fact that there are 16 rookies who figure to get at least ten starts, it is very possible we will see three or four rookies crack the Top 30.  As my Rookie of the Year pick, Hee Kyung Seo is the only rookie I felt good enough about to list here.  But with the likes of Jennifer Song, Jessica Korda, etc. making the scene, it is easy to imagine a handful of them grabbing a Top 10 or three along the way and challenging for the Top 30 and that ROY title.