Evian Masters Preview
by hound dog on Jul 19, 2011 6:40 AM PDT
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Defending Champion - Jiyai Shin Evian Masters Golf Club Evian-les-Bains, France 72 holes, begins Thursday Par 72, 6345 yards Tournament Odds - from Oddschecker.com Last Player In - n/a First Players Out - n/a Scoring Averages - 72.29 (2010), 71.84 (2009), 72.00 (2008) 2011 Scoring Average to date - 73.37
U.S. TV coverage (all times EDT): Thu 630p-830p GC Fri 630p-830p GC Sat 1p-4p GC Sun 1p-4p GC |
You've probably noticed the lack of tournament previews in recent weeks (none since State Farm). My overall output had been getting pre-empted by duties at work and home anyway but the previews were getting particularly difficult to write. I felt like I was regurgitating (ugh!) the same stuff every week. I've decided to resume the previews in a slightly different fashion - keeping the Tournament Box at the top and changing to a notes-centric format for the text.
Evian Notes:
As always sporting a strong field, Evian collects the highest Field Score of 2011. Karine Icher is the only member of my current Top 40 not playing. Karine hasn't teed it up since Sybase so injury is the most likely reason for France's #1 player not making an appearance. UPDATE: She is out on maternity leave. Thanks to Ruthless Mike for bringing that to my attention.
The oddsmakers (link above) obviously aren't paying much attention to the fact that Yani Tseng has never registered a Top 10 finish here in three tries. She did finish T11 last year, however. Though she only came in T31 last year, Cristie Kerr has three Top 10s here in her last five starts so the chances of extending her five-event Top 5 streak seem good.
Evian is a co-sanctioned event by the LPGA and the LET and also invites many players from the Asian tours. So there are always a lot of good players here who haven't gotten much exposure in the U.S. Judging by the Rolex Rankings, the Asian contingent should be well represented on Sunday. Sun Ju Ahn (Rolex #6), U.S. Open champion So Yeon Ryu (#22) and the legendary Yuri Fudoh (#23) top that group. LET'ers you should look out for include Melissa Reid (#39), Lee-Anne Pace (#59) and Caroline Hedwall (#65).
This is always a hotly contested event - Shin beat three players by one shot last year and the three prior events went to sudden-death - so be sure to check out the coverage on GC. Even if it is tape-delayed.
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Oddsmakers don't care about history on a course
It would have to be a massive sample for that to be taken into consideration. Odds are based on power ratings and Tseng is easily #1. She’d be favored on any course at this point.
Oddsmakers aren’t about to hand out high odds on a great player. It shows up most distinctly in tennis, where surfaces can impact win likelihood to extreme degree, much more dramatically than golf. Sampras had very little chance at the French Open but his odds never reflected that.
Matchup odds are more likely than win odds to fluctuate based on course set up. If a sharp bettor thinks Tseng doesn’t fit Evian well, what is he going to do with that theory in terms of win odds? Not much. Win odds are notorious for high house take. Even if Tseng is too low that doesn’t mean someone else is a bargain. But a matchup might offer opportunity to wager against Tseng. The current matchup odds are Tseng -130 (130 to win 100) vs. Kerr +110 (100 returns 110).
Other matchups are:
Shin -120
Pettersen Even
NYC -110
IK Kim -110
Creamer -125
Webb +105
Pressel -120
Inbee Park Even
The Miyazatos -110 vs. each other
good points as usual
Tseng is definitely #1 so of course that should override most other factors. How about doing an occasional Fan Post on the tournament odds? You obviously know the subject very well!
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