Solheim Cup Preview

In my opinion, Solheim is the most entertaining of all women's golf events.  From the format where every hole is its own mini-game and the nationalist pride among the two teams to the March Madness-like scoreboard watching of simultaneous events, you really can't top it for drama.

Two years ago a lot of people said that this competition was becoming a mismatch, apparently focusing on the 8-3 lead by the U.S. and the European team's lesser standings in the Rolex Rankings.  That notion might get adjusted this weekend as Team U.S.A. doesn't appear quite as strong while Team Europe seems to be the opposite plus owns the home-field advantage.  I don't think anybody can deny that Europe will be more comfortable (and the U.S. less so) playing in September Ireland weather than in August Illinois heat.

I've created a chart showing the 24 players' current Rolex and Sagarin Performance Index rankings to get a better idea of each team's strength:

As usual, the U.S. looks much stronger at the top - six players in the Top 16 of both lists to only one for Europe.  What's different in 2011 from the last couple of Solheims is, this time Europe has a lot of mid-range talent.  Last time they had five players on the wrong side of the Top 100.  If you look at the total players in both Top 50s, the teams are even.  And that's leaving out Sophie Gustafson and Karen Stupples, who are Top 40 in at least one of the lists (and both of whom rank in my LPGA Top 35).  Also, the U.S. has four of the five lowest ranked players in the competition in Juli Inkster, Vicky Hurst, Christina Kim and Ryann O'Toole.  If the Europeans had somehow managed to replace Laura Davies with Beatriz Recari, I would consider the Americans talent advantage to be nearly zero.

Not to discount Davies and her fine record in this event but I would be remiss if I didn't focus on her low rankings and remind you of her shaky play at '09 Solheim (which got her benched early in the competition).  Laura's on the team legitimately - she qualified on LET points - but Alison Nicholas must remember it's not 1996 any more.  If Davies gets hot then ride her - but if her Friday match goes sour, Alison had best count on somebody else.  The only other player that Nicholas might be hesitant to use would seem to be Azahara Munoz.  The 2010 LPGA Rookie of the Year hasn't played nearly as well in her sophomore season.

U.S. Captain Rosie Jones has several players concerning her at this juncture.  Kim, Hurst and O'Toole have not played well at all since the team was announced while Michelle Wie and Inkster have both been erratic.  Captain's pick O'Toole has especially been struggling with nary a made cut (and she hasn't been close either) since making the team.  In past Cups, the Americans' depth has made it nearly mandatory that the captain get everyone into action on Friday.  This time I believe Jones will leave O'Toole out of Friday's competition (maybe Hurst too) and might let Ryann only play in the manditory Sunday singles.  Wie, Inkster and Kim have had enough prior success in this event that I would play them as normal, especially to keep the outstanding team of Inkster/Creamer together on the first two days.

If you're looking for key players, I'd say they are Brittany Lincicome and Suzann Pettersen.  Brittany is having a great year but hasn't shown well in her two prior Cups.  Pettersen has been terrific at Solheim in foursomes and four ball but her singles record is surprisingly bad and she's currently suffering from a knee problem.  Those two will have a lot to say about how this weekend turns out.

So who is going to win?  This is Europe's sixth time hosting and they are 3-2 at home but have not won since 2003.  This appears to be their strongest team since at least 2005 and is probably the Americans' weakest since the '03 loss.  Given the fairly equal team strengths, coupled with playing at home and in conditions likely unfavorable to the Yanks, I predict Europe will win in a thriller 15-13.