Hound Dog LPGA: FanPosts

LPGA Announces tournament in Malaysia with Sime Darby

2010-03-01T19:57:30Z

Today the LPGA announced that the inaugural Sime Darby LPGA Malaysia will be played October 22-24, 2010 at the prestigious Kuala Lumpur Golf and Country Club (KLGCC). The announcement was made in Malaysia by Zayra Calderon, LPGA Executive Vice President, Tournament Development & Worldwide Sales, along with officials from Sime Darby Group and IMG, the tournament organizer.

The new LPGA tournament, to be held at least through 2012 per the three-year agreement, will feature the top 50 LPGA members from the Official Money List, along with 10 sponsor's exemptions. The 54-hole stroke play event with no cut will ensure that fans – many of whom will be viewing an LPGA event live for the first time – can catch all of their favorite stars in action throughout the weekend.

The tournament will be shown on Golf Channel. Another week on 2010 calendar is filled. Coud the LPGA be back to playing 30 plus tournaments a year in 2011? At present the signs are hopeful.

My top 30 LPGA golfers for 2010

2010-02-16T20:35:08Z

I'm going to write a preview tomorrow at OTB Sports.

1 Shin*

2 Choi*

3 Wie*

4 Tseng

5 Nordqvist

6 A Miyazato

7 Creamer*

8 IK Kim

9 Ochoa

10 Pettersen

11 Yoo

12 SH Kim

13 Kerr

14 Jang

15 V Hurst

16 Webb

17 Stanford

18 Harigae**

19 McPherson

20 EH Ji

21 JY Oh

22 SH Lee

23 Lincicome

24 MH Kim

25 Han

26 Pressel

27 Wright

28 HY Park

29 Blumenhurst

30 Lang

*- 2010 Major Champions

**- Rookie of the Year

Ron Sirak's top 30 LPGA Golfers for 2010

2010-02-16T14:39:06Z

Unfortunately Golf World isn't linking it at their website. So I have to type this from the magazine

1 JY Shin

2 Ochoa

3 Kerr

4 Pettersen

5 Creamer

6 Tseng

7 Wie

8 Choi

9 SH Kim

10 A Miyazato

11 Stanford

12 Lang

13 Hurst

14 IK Kim

15 Nordqvist

16 Webb

17 Gustafson

18 McPherson

19 Wright

20 Lincicome

21 Pressel

22 SH Lee

23 Matthew

24 EH Ji

25 SR Pak

26 Lewis

27 Ueda

28 A Park

29 IB Park

30 Gulbis

Some random comments

Sirak has a larger contingent of Asia golfers in his top 10 than two years ago when he had just one. But do note, with the exception of Shin he has them from 6-10. The 11-20s are thin however. One or 1.5 depending how you count Vicki Hurst. If you count it, he has 4 South Koreans and 8 Americans in the top 20.

I really think he has Nordqvist, IK Kim, and Choi way too low.(Miyazato could also be in this group) Any of these players could be fighting for player of they year. Vicki Hurst over Kim and Nordqvist? I like Vicki but that's really expecting alot. I do like that Sirak selected SH Kim who because of her winless status will fly under alot of prognosticator's radar.

A Park and IB Park in the top 30. I wouldn't stick out my neck for those two players right now. Particularly Angela. The selections of Gustafson, Pak, Ueda, and Lewis are all gamble selections. Oh well at least Sirak didn't put Juli INkster in his top 30.

I will be coming out with my top 30 before the Honda Thailand begins.

The Gift that keeps giving- LPGA, IMG file counterclaim in SBS lawsuit

2010-02-15T23:20:13Z

Another financial time bomb for the LPGA thanks to its former Commissioner. From Jon Show-

The LPGA and IMG filed a counterclaim this month in a civil action with Seoul Broadcasting System over the company’s refusal to make a payment in its final year as the tour’s Korean television rights holder.

The counterclaim follows a lawsuit filed last August by SBS, the LPGA’s exclusive Korean rights holder from 1995 to 2009, against the LPGA and IMG after they awarded the Korean rights to J Golf beginning in 2010. IMG brokers the tour’s international television rights.

At the root of the lawsuit is a claim by SBS that it had verbal assurance from the LPGA that it could match any final offer for the rights. In its motion to dismiss, the LPGA and IMG deny there was any such agreement.

*****

According to court papers, SBS says the LPGA asked for $4.5 million under terms of a five-year extension that would have begun in 2010. SBS, which paid $2.25 million a year for the rights, was informed by LPGA Commissioner Carolyn Bivens that its $3 million counteroffer was below what she considered market value.

On Jan. 30, 2009, three days before a scheduled meeting between Bivens and SBS President Sang Chun to discuss an extension, the tour informed SBS that it had reached a tentative agreement with J Golf, according to court papers. SBS countered by offering to pay 5 percent on top of the offer from J Golf.

Us LPGA officianados know what happened last February. The LPGA announced its new deal with J Golf right when the SBS Open was being played. SBS President Sang Y. Chun was livid and now that LPGA tournament is history.

Would Carolyn Bivens ever make promises to a tournament sponsor and later renege or treat poorly a sponsor? Let me think.

Hana Bank officially back on the 2010 LPGA Schedule

2010-02-08T18:38:58Z

They have signed a three-year deal with the tour.

The LPGA today announces that Hana Financial Group will title sponsor an LPGA tournament for the next three years, starting this October. The LPGA Hana Bank Championship, a 54-hole official money event, will be held October 29-31, 2010 in the greater Seoul, South Korea area and feature a purse of $1.8 million.

Another tournament, limited field or not, is good news for the LPGA. ~~Only one odd thing- The LPGA is now scheduled to play two tournaments the weekend of Oct 29-Oct 31. Does this mean China be moved to the otherwise open weekend of Oct.22-24?~~

Update- John Show of Sports Business Journal writes-

The confirmed event in South Korea gives the LPGA three consecutive weeks in Asia, assuming a title sponsor can be found for the IMG-run event in China scheduled for Oct. 22-24. The Mizuno Classic in Japan is scheduled for the week following the Hana Bank event.

The way I read the above is that the China stop is still up in the air. Just like it was in 2009, and it ended up being canceled. The good news now over then is that Michael Whan is Commissioner not Carolyn Bivens.

Frankenstat Rankings - Version1.0

2010-02-03T19:08:39Z

Frankenstats are stats calculated from multiple existing LPGA stats. Frankenstat Rankings - Version 1.0 was meant to be a proof of concept ranking system. The basis concept was that it was possible to use the existing LPGA statistics and calculate Frankenstats and the combination of LPGA stats and Frankenstats would allow a better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the LPGA players golfing skills compared to each other. The system should rate the players from best to worst for a series of skills and for overall ranking. The LPGA website has data from 2004 to 2009 (six years) upon which the system must be built. Most people believe that the longer hitters have an advantage over shorter hitters. Therefore, another purpose was to show how that advantage manifests, and what shorter hitters can do to minimize that advantage. I will use individual players to illustrate the points I wish to make. However, the individual players represent the different types and Tiers of players. Annika Sorenstam (pre injury) and Lorena Ochoa have been the only dominate players in the time span for which data is available. Discussion of either will be about what it takes to be a dominate player, which I define here as more than 5 victories in more than one season, Tier 1 players. One step down the pyramid of players is those with 3 to 5 victories in a season, Tier 2 players (Paula Creamer, Christie Kerr, Meg Mallon, Suzann Petterson, JiYai Shin, Karrie Webb) Tier 3 players are those with 2 victories in a season or multiple seasons with a victory (too many to name all of them). Tier 4 players are those with a single victory. Tier 5 players are those who have not won. Both Tier 1 players are long hitters, over 260 yards average distance. Tier 2 players are a combination of long hitters (Pettersen with Kerr and Webb over or just under 260 dependant on the year) and those in the mid range in length of just under 250 yards (Creamer and Shin). Tier 3, Tier 4 and Tier 5 players go from long hitters to short hitters and everything in between.

The first Frankenstat I use, I borrowed (stole) from Hound Dog. Driving Efficiency is Driving Distance * Driving Accuracy added to Driving Distance, then divided by 1.8. The calculation gives added weight to distance, but allows the mid range hitters to score well if they hit a very high percentage of fairways. Longer hitters have an advantage because they have shorter irons into the greens which should make it easier to hit a higher Percentage of Greens In Regulation. However, it is easier to hit the GIR from the fairway than the rough. So I believe the calculation to be a good compromise between distance and accuracy.

The first LPGA stat I use is Percent Greens In Regulation. I think that it is a good proxy for how well a players hits their irons. The better Iron players will hit a higher %GIR than a lessor iron player. Those players who score well year after year on %GIR must be the better iron players.

The second Frankenstat I use is the Stokes Tee to Green. I calculate the Scoring Average for tournaments that the LPGA keeps putting stats. The Strokes Tee to Green is then the Scoring Average minus the Average Putts Per Round. There are three things in play with respect to Stokes Tee to Green. %GIR is a big factor, then a players ability to get up and down from the sand or from around the green, and finally how many times a player is able to reach a Par 5 in two.

The second LPGA stat used is the Putts Per Green In Regulation, which is the best pure putting statistic available.

The third Frankenstat used the the Adjusted Total Putting. Using the Percent Greens In Regulation and the Putts Per Green In Regulation and Average Putts Per Round, I calculate the Adjusted Total Putting. The Adjusted Total Putting calculates the number of putts per round as if each player hit 12 greens in regulation and missed 6 greens. That calculation removes the % GIR from the putting stat to give a better comparison of total putting using an intermediate calculation of Putts Per Greens Missed.

The Frankenstat Ranking Version 1.0 ranks the players from 1 to however many players are included in the stats for each year (146 to 169 dependant on the year). Then using the place on the list for each stat, calculates an average place on the list to give an average rating. Ordering the average from lowest to highest then ranks the players from best to worst. To be honest, that is a terrible way to determine on overall ranking. A number of players may have very close to the same value but be fairly far apart on the list. Also, there is no way to compare a ranking from one year to another. I am now working on Frankenstat Ranking Version 2.0. The idea is to calculate a value for each of the five stats versus a set standard and weight each stat at 20% of the total and calculate a numeric value for each player. Then it is possible to compare an individual player rating from year to year as well as compare any player to another for any year (is Sorenstam's 8 win year better or worse than Ochoa's 8 win year?).

Observations below the fold.

This method of calculating a ranking will not correlate to who actually wins tournaments. This ranking is more about how a players plays on average for the whole year. Winning is about doing well a particular week. Often winning is about having a hot putter. A hot putting round the last round of a close tournament can result in a win. Sometimes it is about having a hot putter for the whole tounament or maybe for just 2 rounds. Sometimes the winner is determined not by who makes the most birdies, but by who made the least bogeys. In that case the hot putter does not win, but the best play from tee to green does.

In 2001 before the LPGA website has recorded statistics, Annika Sorenstam shot a 59 in a tournament. From what I can find she had 13 birdies and hit all 18 greens and had 25 putts. She had 11 one putt greens and had 2 two putt birdies on Par 5's. I do not know how many feet of birdie putts she holed. Sorenstam shot 261 which was 27 under par and won by two strokes (hot putter yields 27 under par). In 2008 Paula Creamer shot 60 in a tournament. She had 11 birdies and hit all 18 greens and had 25 putts. Creamer had 11 one putt greens and holed 125.5 feet of birdie putts (average of 11.4 feet per birdie putt). The next day Creamer had 7 birdies and holed 116 feet of birdie putts (average of 16.6 feet per birdie putt). Creamer won the tournament by two shots after final rounds of 70 and 73. In 2008 Hee-Won Han shot 61 in a tournament. She had 11 birdies and made 123 feet of birdie putts (average of 11.2 feet per birdie putt.). Her next best round was a 69 and she lost by 2 shots. A hot putter can win a lot of tournaments, but don't count on winning with one hot round. Second point, I mentioned above how long hitters can do well on Stokes Tee to Green by reaching Par 5's in two shots and wanting to understand how long hitters have an advantage. The long hitters make more eagles, but I believe a bigger advantage for the longest hitters is the number of two putt birdies they make. I would like to have a Frankenstat for two putt birdies, but with the available data it is not possible to calculate an accurate number. It is possible to calculate the number of birdies a player makes based on Percent Greens In Regulation and Putts Per Green In Regulation, but the number does not account for birdies made from off the greens or 3 putt bogeys and worse, which lower the number of birdies calculated. Subtracting the calculated birdies from the number of birdies actually made gives only an approximate number for Two Putt Birdies. Those numbers show a higher number for longer hitters as a general rule when I compare driving distance and players who have about the same Putts Per Green In Regulation. It seems logical that players with higher Putts Per Green In Regulation would tend to have more three putt bogeys than the better putters. So that is why I compare players with approximately the same Putts Per Green In Regulation.

The player with lowest ranking by Frankenstats that actually won a tournament was Silvia Cavalleri in 2007. Hound Dog has referred to victories like hers as a fluke (defined as a stroke of luck). Some people object to the term fluke, since those players played well enough to actually earn their playing privileges. However you refer to those victories singled out by Hound Dog as flukes, they were totally unexpected based on the performance of those players over a significant period of time. Cavaleri won the tournament with 4 rounds in the 60's (69-68-69-66). Out of 67 rounds she played in 2007 she had 9 rounds in the 60's and 20 rounds under par. Somehow she put together four rounds for her victory. I like the term, Fluke Victories, under those circumstances.

This has gotten to be long so I will add more observations with the next post, when I roll out Frankenstat Ranking Version 2.0

Match play to return to LPGA in 2010

2010-01-26T19:54:47Z

A new tournament in 2010. From Randall Mell at the Shag Bag-

The LPGA announced Tuesday the debut of the Sybase Match Play Championship. The tournament will be held at Hamilton Farm Golf Club in Galdstone, N.J., May 20-23.

Sixty-four of the top players from around the world will compete for a $1.5 million purse, with the winner earning $375,000.

Hamilton Farm was the site of the 2005 and 2006 HSBC Women's World Match Play event. This will be the first official match-play tournament contested since its demise after the 2007 season.

Seon Hwa Lee defeated Ai Miyazato in the finals of the last edition. The LPGA continues to get healthier under its new Commissioner, Michael Whan.

More Frankenstat Rankings

2010-01-23T00:15:56Z

I have calculated Frankenstat Rankings for 2007 and 2008 and will send those spreadsheets to Hound Dog to attach to this post. So those who enjoy looking at the stats or just want to look at individual players can have fun. The table below has the top 20 rankings for 2007, 2008, and 2009. The numbers in parentheses are the number of victories and the other numbers are the average ranking for the 5 stats used. Five players are in the top 20 all three years: Lorena Ochoa, Paula Creamer, Suzann Pettersen, Cristie Kerr and Angela Stanford. If I include those in the Top 30, Maria Hjorth, Karrie Webb and Seon Hwa Lee will add to the list. Yani Tseng and Na Yeon Choi are in the Top 20 both years they have been members of the LPGA. Jiyai Shin, Anna Nordqvist and Michelle Wie all made the list in their rookie years. Song-Hee Kim, Brittany Lang, and Sun Young Yoo were in the Top 40 in 2007 and in the Top 20 in 2008 and 2009, and were the top three players on The Constructivist's list for those most likely to break thru with a victory in 2010.

If you add Ai Miyazato and In-Kyung Kim to the players listed above, you have a very good start (60 %) to a prediction of the Top 30 players for 2010. The biggest problem is to get them in the right order. My crystal ball is always cloudy so I don't do predictions, but I really enjoy doing the calculations on results. On a cautionary note, illness, injury, pregnancy, or surgery can have a big effect on those who score well on this list (Jeong Jang and Mi Hyun Kim) being prime examples.

2008 Frankenstats rankings

2007 Frankenstats rankings

                 2007                                          2008                                          2009

1. Lorena Ochoa (8)         1.6     1. Lorena Ochoa (7)           1.8    1. Lorena Ochoa (3)           5.8

2. Paula Creamer (2)       7.4     2. Suzann Pettersen (0)    5.8    2. Cristie Kerr (1)                6.6

3. Suzann Pettersen (5)   7.6     3. Paula Creamer (4)      10.0    3. Paula Creamer (0)        8.4

4. Jee Young Lee (0)      13.0     3. Yani Tseng (1)              10.0    4. Ai Miyazato (1)                 8.8

5. Mi Hyun Kim (1)           20.0     5. Annika Sorenstam (3) 12.2    4. Jiyai Shin (3)                   8.8

6. Jeong Jang (0)            21.6     5. Cristie Kerr (1)              12.2    6. Suzann Pettersen (1) 11.6

7. Angela Stanford (0)    23.8      7. Song-Hee Kim (0)        17.6    7. Angela Stanford (1)     12.8

8. Morgan Pressel (1)    24.0      8. Na Yeon Choi (0)          21.4    8. Na Yeon Choi (2)         16.6

9. Angela Park (0)           24.8      9. Karrie Webb (0)             21.6    9. Song-Hee Kim (0)       16.8

10. Karrie Webb (0)         25.8    10. Angela Stanford (2)      23.2   10. In-Kyung Kim (1)         17.4

11. Nicole Castrale (1)   26.4    10. Jeong Jang (0)              23.2   11. Yani Tseng (1)             22.2

12. Christina Kim (0)      26.8     12. Jee Young Lee (0)       27.6   11. Kristy McPherson (0) 22.2

13. Seon Hwa Lee (1)    28.4     13. Hee Won Han (0)         30.8   13. Brittany Lang (0)          22.6

14. Brittany Lincicome (1) 29.0 13. Karen Stupples (0)      30.8   14. Helen Alfredsson (0) 23.2

15. Shi Hyun Ahn (0)        30.0    15. Sun Young Yoo (0)      31.2   15. Sun Young Yoo (0)      23.4

16. Julie Inkster (0)          31.0     16. Brittany Lang (0)          35.2   16. Anna Nordqvist (2)      25.6

17. Cristie Kerr (1)           32.4     17. Sandra Gal (0)             35.8    17. Michelle Wie (1)          27.4

18. Maria Hjorth (1)          35.2     18. Giulia Sergas (0)        36.8    18. Maria Hjorth (0)           27.6

19. Se Ri Pak (1)              35.6     19. Eun-Hee Ji (1)             37.2    19. Natalie Gulbis (0)       30.4

20. Pat Hurst (0)               39.2     20. Christina Kim (0)        40.6     20. Seon Hwa Lee (0)     31.4

My next post on this subject will be what this type of analysis suggest about the strengths and weaknesses of a players game. The intent is to look at some players individually and some general observations that apply to players in general. For example take Lorena Ochoa, in 2007 and 2008, she was the dominate player on the tour with 8 and 7 wins in 2007 and 2008 and nothing worse than a fourth place finish in any of the stats. The lower rating in the %GIR and Tee to Green Strokes, indicates she did not hit her irons as well in 2009 as she did in 2007 and 2008. For the adjusted Total Putting value to be significantly higher than the Putts per GIR value suggest a player did not get up and down from around the green as well as her competition did.

Lorena Ochoa 2007 2008 2009

Driving Efficiency 1 1 1

Percent GIR 1 1 8

TtG Strokes 1 2 9

Putts per GIR 2 4 1

Adj Total Putting 3 1 10

Average 1.6 1.8 5.8

Wins 8 7 3

The Best on the LPGA w/o a Major

2010-01-20T16:20:21Z

As with my other pre-season wins-based rankings, the following tiered and ranked list of the best on the LPGA without a major is ordered partly by how well the golfers on it were playing in the 2nd half of the 2009 season and partly on their annual and career achievements. It's 33% expectations, 33% speculations, and 33% hunches, of course, but hopefully it's better-informed than the now-classic Paula Watch and soon-to-be-classic Wie Watch. The numbers in parentheses are for LPGA wins and international wins (only from the JLPGA, KLPGA, and LET). Oh, and for my #16-#25, head on over to Mostly Harmless.

Most Likely to Break Through in 2010

1. Ai Miyazato (1/15): 2009, her 1st full healthy season since she was a rookie in 2006, was much more of a return to her normal game than a hot streak. Even in the face of her injuries and their aftermath from mid-2007 to mid-2008, she's still finished in the top 10 in a major each of the 4 seasons she's been an LPGA member--and both years she was healthy she got 2. With Player of the Year firmly in her sights for 2010, she's bought a house in the U.S. and started training in Phoenix. Like Jason Sobel, I expect great things from her this coming season, particularly in the majors. More on that later!
2. Na Yeon Choi (2/4): Barring last season's wind-swept Kraft Nabisco Championship, where she ballooned to T40, her worst finish in a major as an LPGA member has been T21 and she's made the top 10 in half her starts, including her last 3 in a row. And she accomplished all that before she broke through for her 1st and 2nd wins of her short LPGA career in the last third of last season. Watch out for her in 2010!
3. Paula Creamer (8/2): Her LPGA bio page fails to note her 2 JLPGA wins in 2005, which is odd, because they got featured on LPGA.com that year. I mention this to belabor the obvious: as most players in the Double Digits Club in worldwide wins have won at least 1 major, she's just the slightest bit due for her 1st. Since becoming an LPGA member in 2005, her only finish in a major outside the top 25 was in the 2006 LPGA Championship and she's finished inside the top 10 in 40% of her starts, including her last 2 in a row. Given that record, the only reason she's not #1 on this list is the uncertain status of her health in 2010.
4. In-Kyung Kim (2/1): In her last 6 majors, her worst finish has been T28 in the winds at the 2009 KNC; everything else has been a top 20 or better, including 2 T3s at consecutive U.S. Women's Opens. Her season-ending win in Dubai shows she's capable of beating major-quality fields. And that came at the end of a run after her win at the State Farm where she uncharacteristically mixed 4 missed cuts in with many strong tournaments. Imagine what she's capable of when she's rested and prepared for a new season!
5. Michelle Wie (1/0): As much as her rookie season exceeded my expectations, her performance in last year's majors was nowhere near her 7 close calls from 2003-2006, including 6 top 5s. Look for her to rectify that in 2010, although it's still an open question how early her season will start and how rusty she'll be when her winter term (carrying 20 credits at Stanford) ends.
6. Angela Stanford (4/0): Her best chance to win a major to date came in the 2003 U.S. Women's Open, but Hilary Lunke answered Stanford's 27-foot birdie with her own walkoff birdie to win the 18-hole playoff instead. Since then, she's had 10 top-25 finishes in majors, including 2 top 5s at the LPGA Championship. She may have cooled off a bit from her hot streak at the end of 2008 and start of 2009, but she's definitely got the game to win a major in 2010.

The Contenders

7. Song-Hee Kim (0/0): With top 25s in 5 of her last 6 majors, she's got the talent and the game to make her 1st LPGA win a major. I'm talking Cristie Kerr-style talent and game. Let's see if she can catch her in 2010 in total majors won.
8. Seon Hwa Lee (4/3): One of the main reasons she finished so low on the money list in 2009, barely hanging onto the top 30 after being a top 5 threat the previous 2 seasons, was her uncharacteristically bad performances in last year's majors, including a WD at the U.S. Women's Open and an MC at the Women's British Open. Whereas her worst performance in 2008 was a T27 at the U.S. Women's Open, her best in 2009 was a T30 at the wind-blown KNC. Still, last season's overall performance stats were near her career norms and she's going to be able to stay sharp this one by filling out her schedule on the JLPGA. She's shown she can handle big-time pressure, beating Ai Miyazato in the last Women's World Match Play Championship and running up one of the best head-to-head records in international team play ever. I'd love to see the Stone Buddha in the hunt on more than 1 major Sunday this season. As she followed up her 2 top 20s in the 1st 2 majors of 2006 with 2 top 10s in them in 2008, the numbers are in her favor in 2010 (not to mention the Chinese zodiac).
9. Brittany Lang (0/0): She's finished inside the top 40 in 8 of her last 9 majors (the only blemish being a missed cut at the 2008 WBO). She still hasn't improved on her T2 finish (with fellow then-amateur Morgan Pressel) in the 2005 U.S. Women's Open that Birdie Kim won with a walkoff slam dunk from the sand, much less her 1st professional major, a T8 at the KNC. But she's long and straight enough to contend in any major and just needs to have a good putting week to make her 1st LPGA win a major.
10. Sophie Gustafson (5/18): Even though she's played about the same high-quality golf (if rather inconsistently so) over the past 4 seasons and change, the last 2 haven't been as kind to her when it comes to the majors. Compared to 4 top 10s in a 7-major run from the end of 2005 to the middle of 2007, her best recent finish has been a T16 at the 2009 LPGA Championship. But coming off yet another LET money title, she's coming into 2010 with a lot of confidence and gearing up for an early-season charge.
11. Jee Young Lee (1*/2): She's struggled the last 3 majors, after establishing 1 of the best records in them among LPGA's Young Guns, with 3 top 10s capped by a T2 in the WBO in 2007 and no finish worse than T22 between the 2006 LPGA Championship and the 2009 KNC. Her falloff last season, though, was much more severe than Seon Hwa Lee's and she'll need a big comeback in 2010 to put herself back in most conversations about this season's contenders for majors.
12. Momoko Ueda (1*/8): She's been working harder on her game than almost anyone on the LPGA since she joined it in 2008, but unfortunately the results didn't really start to show last season until after she had taken a big step backwards in the majors from her rookie season. Still, she's made 9 straight cuts in majors and is certainly ready to win outside Japan.
13. Katherine Hull (1/0): 2 top 20s last season, including a T8 in the wind at the KNC, show what she's capable of. I've heard on the grapevine that Dean Herden, Ji-Yai Shin's caddy, thinks Hull is on track for a win in 2010, so I emailed him for a quote. I'll insert it here when he gets back to me.
14. Hee-Won Han (6/2): Back when she was among the very best players in the world from 2003-2006, she had 10 top 25s in the majors. But 3 of her best 4 career finishes in them have actually come since her son Dale was born, including a T6 at the windy 2009 KNC (the 2nd in her last 4 starts there) and a T9/T3 combo in the last 2 Women's British Open. Count her out at your own risk!
15. Maria Hjorth (3/5): Don't be fooled by that dip in her majors output in late 2008 or her late start to the 2009 season--both were strictly a pregnancy effect. Now that she's put her maternity leave behind her by getting stronger with each start in 2009, she's ready to be the kind of player again who averaged 2 top 10s a year in 2007 and 2008--although I doubt she'll improve on that T2, 4th, 2nd run from the '07 WBO to the '08 U.S. Women's Open. Her T11 in last season's WBO shows what she's capable of, though.

The Best on the LPGA with 7 or More Wins

2010-01-20T15:22:07Z

I'm curious as to which players from my previous wins-based rankings can join the best of the LPGA's best on this list, and how quickly. Will anyone have the kind of wins explosion this coming season that Annika and the #1 player here became famous for? Or will it be more of the steady climb that's characterized the #2 and #3 players here? After the Hall of Famers, there are very few active players who've made it to double digits in career victories left on the LPGA--and very few of them who are still viable threats to add to their totals in 2010. Who will be the next to join the Double Digits Club? Stay tuned!

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Lorena Ochoa (27/2): If 2009 was a down season for the world #1, she's 1 of the 5 best players in LPGA history. Not only did she win her 4th-straight Player of the Year award and Vare Trophy, 2009 was her 5th multiple-win season in her 7-year career on the LPGA and her 6th-straight season in the Million Dollar Club. The only pertinent question for 2010 is how much longer she can remain Queen of the LPGA Hill, now that she's married and has to be thinking about when to add to her new family. To augment her standing in LPGA history, though, she will need to win more majors and have more multi-million dollar seasons with 4 wins or more. After 2010, she needs 2 more full seasons to enter the LPGA Hall of Fame. Will she hold off on having a child of her own until after 2012? Or will she try to add to her legend before then by becoming one of the few moms on tour to keep winning regularly?
2. Paula Creamer (8/0): Even though she didn't win in 2009, she made it her 5th-straight season in the Million Dollar Club and, according to tatkins at Hound Dog LPGA, she had the 3rd-best season on tour (behind only Ochoa and Cristie Kerr) when you consider performance stats alone. So if she's healthy in 2010, I see her having a multiple-win season, particularly if she putts like she's capable of.
3. Cristie Kerr (12/1): Let's see how she bounces back from letting a couple of majors, the Player of the Year award, the Vare Trophy, and the money-list title slip through her fingers in 2009. I see a little bit of a letdown in the 1st half of 2010 for her. But I'd be shocked if she failed to join the Million Dollar Club for the 7th-straight season and failed to win in 2010. If she's going to qualify for the Hall of Fame, though, she'd better pick up the pace!

The Contenders

4. Karrie Webb (36/7): During her 1st 11 seasons on the LPGA, she was a consistent threat for the money-list title (which she took 3 times), Player of the Year award (twice), and Vare Trophy (3 times, the lowest scoring average of the 3 coming in 1999, at 69.43). In her 14-year LPGA career, she's never finished outside the top 30 on the money list, never had a scoring average above 72, only twice failed to make the top 20 on the money list (these were the only times her scoring average rose above 71.50), and only 3 times failed to enter the winner's circle (each of those seasons, her best finish was 2nd). The thing is, all 3 of those seasons came in the last 5 years, which raises some nagging doubts about 2010. A key for her this coming season will be continuing to improve her driving accuracy, as she did in 2009. Giving herself better looks at the green will translate into more and better birdie opportunities and could reignite her putter, which has been her Achilles heel since the 2007 season.
5. Se Ri Pak (24/5): From 1998-2004, she was one of the 3 best players in the world of women's golf, racking up 22 golds, 14 silvers, 6 bronzes, and 83 top 10s in all. She won the Vare Trophy in 2003 with a 70.03 scoring average, but not in 2002 with a 69.85 one or in 2001 with a 69.69 (thanks, Annika!). She was a 4-time silver medalist on the money list and 2-time bronze medalist during this stretch. She hasn't been quite that dominant since then, but she won her 5th major in dramatic fashion at the 2006 Kraft Nabisco Championship and became a 5-time winner of the Farr in 2007, the year she was inducted into the Hall of Fame. With her driver getting back on track in 2009, all she needs in 2010 is for more putts to drop to show the cohort of "Dragon Ladies" inspired by her 1998 U.S. Women's Open victory a thing or 2 about winning on the LPGA.
6. Helen Alfredsson (7/1): Her scoring average in 2009 was her 4th-lowest ever, even better than some from 1992-1995, when she was a fixture on the top 20. As long as she stays healthy, I don't see any reason why she shouldn't notch her 3rd-straight top 40 season in 2010, which would be the 2nd-longest streak of such consistently strong play in her 18-year career on the LPGA.

For the other 7, head on over to Mostly Harmless!

Top 30 - Prediction for 2010

2010-01-19T17:42:34Z

I guess I was in wrong place for this post originally. I Think I have it right this time. Thans TC for pointing out the

NYC double - that has been corrected.

Here are my top 30 for 2010.

1   Ji-Yai Shin
2   Ya Ni Tseng
3   Lorena Ochoa
4   Ai Miyazato
5   Michelle Wie
6   Suzann Pettersen
7   In-Kyung Kim
8   Brittany Lang
9   Na Yeon Choi
10   Cristie Kerr
11   In-Kyung Kim
12   Brittany Lang
13    Paula Creamer
14    Angela Stanford
15    Anna Nordqvist
16    Momoko Ueda
17    Song-Hee Kim
18    Kristy McPherson
19    Eun-Hee Ji
20    Karrie Webb
21    Amy Yang
22    Lindsey Wright
23    Sun Young Yoo
24    Sophie Gustafson
25    Maria Hjorth
26    Stacy Lewis
27    Mika Miyazato
28    Brittany Lincicome
29    Vicky Hurst
30    Hee Young Park

I noticed two more dups above (In-Kyung Kim & Brittany Lang)

This post should rectify that (again) if it is too late that is fine i will go with my picks for top 28 :)

1 Ji-Yai Shin
2 Ya Ni Tseng
3 Lorena Ochoa
4 Ai Miyazato
5 Michelle Wie
6 Suzann Pettersen
7 Na Yeon Choi
8 Cristie Kerr
9 In-Kyung Kim
10 Brittany Lang
11 Paula Creamer
12 Angela Stanford
13 Anna Nordqvist
14 Momoko Ueda
15 Song-Hee Kim
16 Kristy McPherson
17 Eun-Hee Ji
18 Karrie Webb
19 Amy Yang
20 Lindsey Wright
21 Sun Young Yoo
22 Sophie Gustafson
23 Maria Hjorth
24 Stacy Lewis
25 Mika Miyazato
26 Brittany Lincicome
27 Vicky Hurst
28 Hee Young Park
29 Ji Young Oh
30 Hee-Won Han

- rjay

Best on the LPGA with 3 to 6 Wins

2010-01-14T09:04:02Z

Over at Mostly Harmless, I preface my ranking of the the top 15 active players on the LPGA with 3 to 6 career wins by considering what it would mean for the players on my other lists to join this one. Here are the 10 players already n this list that I think have the best chance of adding to their victory totals in 2010.

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Ji-Yai Shin (6/1): 3 of her wins, including her only major thus far, the Women's British Open, came before she was even an LPGA member, and after the end of her rookie year, she maintained her 3 wins per season rate. I'm wondering what she's capable of when she actually gets comfortable on tour. She's set her sights squarely on LPGA Player of the Year in 2010 and has told the Korean media she plans to play less on the JLPGA. Which means we can expect a minimum of 4 LPGA wins from her in the coming season. For more reasons why, check out the guest post from Tim Maitland I'm putting up here at lunchtime.
2. Suzann Pettersen (6/1): Just as she had to wait a long time for her 1st win, she had to wait a long time for her 6th. But she convinced me during that drought that she's truly one of the tour's elite players. While I don't see another 5-win season on her horizon, I wouldn't be surprised if she won a couple of tournaments in 2010.
3. Angela Stanford (4/0): Like Pettersen, her wins have come largely in bunches. She won twice at the end of 2008, when it seemed like she was putting herself in contention every week, then won the opening event of 2009. And even though she's endured a little bit of a drought since then--due in no small part to taking time away from golf to support her mom during her cancer treatments--she improved all her key stats from 2008 to 2009. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see her to become the top American on tour in 2010.
4. Seon Hwa Lee (4/0): Although 2009 was a down year for her in wins and winnings, her key performance stats were right around her career norms, which had been good enough to make her a top 5 threat in her 1st 3 seasons on the LPGA. The 2006 Rookie of the Year is still averaging 1 win per season, so watch out for her in 2010. Accustomed to playing 30 events a year, she'll stay sharp when the LPGA's schedule goes dark, thanks to her dual membership on the LPGA and JLPGA. I expect her to win more often there than here, but you never know.

The Contenders

5. Sophie Gustafson (5/0): Even though she remains a mercurial player, she's made the top 30 on the LPGA money list 5 straight seasons and in 2009 topped the LET money list. In 4 of them, her scoring average was below 72 and last year's was the lowest in that period. She definitely has the talent to win any week she tees it up, so even though her inconsistency is her Achilles' heel, she's a blast to watch when she's in contention. Plus, she's shown her commitment to 2010 by committing to play the LET's ANZ Ladies Masters for the 1st time in 6 years (on which more later).
6. Hee-Won Han (6/0): She was averaging a win a year over her 1st 6 seasons and was a fixture on the top 10 of the money list for 4 of them, but since taking a maternity leave in 2007, enduring long separations from her son in 2008, and struggling a bit by her standards in 2009, she's something of a question mark for 2010. Her scoring average last season was the closest to going above 72 since her rookie season in 2001 and she had almost as much trouble finishing in the top 10. But the 2 times she did, she took home bronze medals. If she can improve her ballstriking, particularly her approach shots, in the coming season, she'll be a top 15 player again for sure. But I'm not sure how much time on the range her son will let her have.
7. Maria Hjorth (3/0): She came back from maternity leave and got stronger as the season progressed, culminating with a silver medal in Korea and ending up with the lowest scoring average of her 12-year career on the LPGA. If she maintains her excellent ballstriking and gets her putter going in 2010, this former English major could write a new chapter in a very solid career to date.
8. Catriona Matthew (3/1): She took even less time to come back from her maternity leave than Hjorth, winning the Women's British Open in her 2nd event back from giving birth. Let's see what she does with a full season in 2010. It'll be hard to top her Player of the Year award from the LET, but seeing as how she actually came close to striking the ball as well in 2009 as she did in 1999-2005, when she was a consistent top 30 player and sometime top 10 threat, it won't take very big improvements to keep her momentum going.
9. Candie Kung (4/0): If she could have hung in there on Sunday at the U.S. Women's Open, her 2009 would have been quite different, but as it was, it was a huge disappointment. She wasn't that terrible off the tee (she was actually fairly solid), but her approach shots were off and her putting was horrific. It was the 1st time in her career, barring an injury-shortened 2007, that she failed to break the 72 barrier in scoring average, she could only manage 2 top 10s, and she missed more cuts than at any other time in her 8-year LPGA career. So of course I think she's poised for a comeback in 2010.
10. Brittany Lincicome (3/1): As high as I am on everyone else's chances in 2010, I'm skeptical about Lincicome's. Yes, she had the shot of the year in 2009, denying Kristy McPherson her 1st LPGA win and Cristie Kerr her 2nd career major with her walkoff eagle at the KNC. But she's still never broken the 72 barrier in scoring average, never notched more than 5 top 10s in her 5-year LPGA career, and never hit more than 68% of her fairways. When you're as long as she is, a little lost accuracy isn't that big a deal, but Bam Bam hasn't even exceeded a 65% fairway rate since her rookie season.

Player Rankings By Frankenstats

2010-01-13T20:56:45Z

I have always enjoyed Hound Dog's Frankenstats because they attempt to rank the players by how good various parts of their game are (total driving and total putting). I carried out that idea to the maximum limit and ranked players by a combination of LPGA stats and Frankenstats, I have the player ranking given below. Approximately 60 percent of a players strokes are from tee to green, and approximately 40 percent of a players strokes are putts. So my rankings must reflect that ratio with 40 percent based on putting stats and 60 based on stats tee to green. The first Frankenstat used will be Total Driving. I think of it as Driving Efficiency and use a divisor of 1.8 instead of the divisor of 6 Hound Dog uses. His values start around 75 go down, while mine are above 250 and go down (closer to actual driving distance). Longer drivers still have the advantage in this rating but players with great accuracy and shorter driving distances (Paula Creamer and Jiyai Shin) rank very well. The next stat I use is Greens In Regulation which is a proxy for how well a player plays their irons. The third stat is another Frankenstat, the total number of strokes per round a player uses to get on the green (TtG Strokes). This stat has a lot of long hitters toward the top because of their ability to reach par fives in two. The next stat is Putts Per GIR (greens in regulation), which is the closest to a true putting stat available. The last is another Frankenstat, Adjusted Total Putting which calculates putts per round a players would use if they hit 12 greens in regulation and missed 6, thereby puting all players putting on the same basis. I then average where a player ranks in each stat and order the ranking from lowest to highest average.

Frankenstats are stats that uses multiple stats from the LPGA to calculate a new stat.

Here is the complete spreadsheet - HD:

2009 Rankings by Frankenstats

     Player                 HD Rank    TD    %GIR    TtG      PGIR    Adj Putts    AVG

1 Lorena Ochoa           1            1          8          9           1         10          5.8

2 Cristie Kerr               4            5          2          1          19            6          6.6

3 Paula Creamer        11          7         1          3          27            4           8.4

4 Jiyai Shin                 2            6         15        20           2            1           8.8

4 Ai Miyazato              3          11       13        11          6              3           8.8

6 Suzann Pettersen   6          16         10         4            8            20         11.6

7 Angela Stanford        9            2         12         8           21           21         12.8

8 Na Yeon Choi          5           20        14       12           28             9          16.6

9 Song Hee Kim        13          29         28       22            3              2          16.8

10 In-Kyung Kim         12          38          7        16            7             19         17.4

11 Yani Tseng              8          15         11         5           57            23         22.2

11 Kristy McPherson 18          14         16       18         35             28         22.2

13 Brittany Lang          17           4           5        15         55             34         22.6

14 Helen Alfredsson   31          17         27        25        20             27         23.2

15 Sun Young Yoo      21            9           6         7          46             49         23.4

16 Anna Nordqvist       7            41         30       28         24              5          25.6

17 Michelle Wie          10           75         21       14          5               22        27.4

18 Maria Hjorth           23            8           4         2          53              71        27.6

19 Natalie Gulbis        25           44         47       41          9               11        30.4

20 Seon Hwa Lee       27           19         40       48         34              16        31.4

21 Catriona Matthew 15           68         29      30         15               17       31.8

22 Sophie Gustafson 19          22         18        6          62               73       36.2

23 Lindsey Wright      20          42         39       33         36              32        36.4

24 Paige Mackenzie   51          21         19       27         60               57       36.8

25 Karrie Webb          14          28           9       13         78               58       37.2

26 Vicky Hurst           32          18         26       19         45              79        37.4

27 Amy Yang             34          55         31       29         39              42        39.2

28 Morgan Pressel     22          72         37       38         42              14        40.6

29 Katherine Hull        30          64         55       53         16              18        41.2

30 Janice Moodie        41          31         34       34         58              65        44.4

Hound Dog's ranking is greatly influenced by who wins. This ranking is based on who plays well in all parts of the game. So Paula Creamer ranks third here but only eleventh on HD Ranking, while Anna Nordqvist ranks sixteenth here and seventh on HD Ranking. So why did Nordqvist win twice and Creamer, who overall played much better, not win at all. The thing I remember about Nordqvist's wins was that she putted crazy good. I remember relatively poor chip shots where she made the putts and made birdies when she had a chance. Jiyai Shin had 3 wins and ranked first and second in the two putting stats. The data seems to suggest a hot putter will win a lot of tournaments. Creamer had 2 second place finishes and 4 third place finishes, suggesting only a putt here or there per round going in the hole and she could have won multiple times. 27th place in Putts Per GIR suggest Creamer putted well, but never really got hot with her putter. Paige Mackenzie being ranked 24th in this analysis is the biggest surprise in this list for me. Does this suggest that with a little improvement in her putting she could have a break out year. Brittany Lang is another player who ranks very well tee to green but must putt better to win.

The Best on the LPGA with 2 Wins

2010-01-13T17:13:21Z

Whereas coming up with ranked lists of the top players on the LPGA with no wins and 1 win was pretty cut-and-dried, some of the best active players on the LPGA have 2 wins and even those who have been struggling recently have pretty impressive records. It'll be very interesting to see who's the 1st to graduate from this list in 2010. Will it be 1 of the LPGA's Young Guns, someone from the New Blood generation, or one of the resurgent vets on tour?

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Ya Ni Tseng: It took her what felt like forever to get that 2nd LPGA win, but I doubt she'll have to wait that long for win #3. She's riding a 5-event top-10 run into 2010 and is averaging 1 win and $1.55M in winnings per season thus far.
2. Na Yeon Choi: She was 1 of the hottest golfers in the world at the end of last season and I don't see any reason for her not to carry that over into 2010. After all, she's never missed an LPGA cut or failed to join the Million Dollar Club in her 1st 2 seasons.
3. In-Kyung Kim: Her win at Dubai to end 2009 gives her dual LPGA-LET membership in 2010. If she plays her scheduling cards right, she could have the best season of anyone on this list.
4. Morgan Pressel: With her new swing grooved, short game sharp, and her confidence rising, she's poised for a breakout 2010.
5. Anna Nordqvist: Hound Dog claims her rookie season was the best by anyone in LPGA history who failed to win the Rookie of the Year award and ranks it 8th overall. I'm not going to argue with Hound Dog, but I'd like to see the LET's ROY make the top 20 and top 10 more consistently before I'm moving her up this list. Like Kim, she may be able to take advantage of dual LPGA-LET membership in 2010.
6. Eun-Hee Ji: She gutted out a win at the U.S. Women's Open to join this list, then joined the list of players who succumbed to the Open jinx. So far she's handling it better than Inbee Park--and way better than Birdie Kim or Hilary Lunke--but she still is the coldest among the top-shelf 2-time winners on the LPGA.

The Contenders

7. Jeong Jang: She didn't bounce back from wrist surgery like I expected her to in 2009, but still maintained her lead in career winnings in the Seoul Sisters generation, staying just ahead of Hee-Won Han and maintaining her lead on Grace Park. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a comeback for her in 2010.
8. Karen Stupples: She came back from maternity leave faster and played better than I expected in 2009, so I'm looking for her to have a great 2010.
9. Christina Kim: She didn't have that breakout Solheim Cup year that I was looking for, but after working hard to get in better shape she's in good shape for 2010.

Quantum Leap Candidates

10. Ji Young Oh: Somehow I can't believe that this Junior Mint has as promising a future on the LPGA as the other Young Guns on this list, but she's proven me wrong before and she could well do it again in 2010.
11. Stacy Prammanasudh: 2009 was easily the worst season of her 7-year career. She dropped to #59 on my Best of the LPGA ranking, but I don't expect to see her that low at the end of 2010. The key for her is to get her driving accuracy back to where it was in 2004-2006, when she was hitting the fairway over 70% of the time. If she can do it, she can start attacking courses again. If you don't think this matters, check out the difference between Ai Miyazato's 2009 and her previous 2 seasons.
12. Meena Lee: After being a top 20 player in her 1st 2 seasons, averaging 1 win and 6 top 10s per year, her last 3 have been more of a struggle, as she's failed to crack the top 30 on the money list and is averaging only about 2 top 10s per year. Still, she made cuts and scored pretty close to her career norms in 2009, earning the #46 spot on my Best of the LPGA ranking, so there's no reason she can't come back in 2010, particularly if she keeps improving her approach shots, her Achilles heel the last 3 seasons. When you're as accurate off the tee as she is, she should be giving herself a lot more birdie chances.

For #13-#20, head on over to Mostly Harmless!

The Best on the LPGA with 1 Win

2010-01-12T10:54:29Z

My 2010 preview series continues at Mostly Harmless with a look at the best on the LPGA with a single win. Here are the players who I think have the best chance to make their 1st wins a little less lonely in 2010:

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Ai Miyazato: I've said it before and I'll say it again: she gave herself 13 chances to win on the LPGA and JLPGA in 2009, but could close the deal only at the Evian Masters (her 1st, obviously) and Sankyo Ladies (her 15th). So last season's #4-ranked LPGA player and #6-ranked JLPGA player is one of my frontrunners for LPGA Player of the Year in 2010. Yup, I'm expecting multiple wins from her on the LPGA this coming season. More on that a little later.
2. Michelle Wie: According to Hound Dog, she was part of the 2nd-greatest collective rookie season in LPGA history (behind Ai-sama's '06ers) and had an ROY-quality year--good enough for 12th on his list of all-time individual rookie performances on the LPGA. I'm hoping her Stanford professors let her golf in Asia next month, despite her 20-credit course load this term. Like everyone else, I'd love to see her play as full a schedule as possible in 2010. Even on a limited schedule in 2009, she ended up #11 on my final Best of the LPGA ranking. So it ahould be no surprise that she's another one of my frontrunners for POY this coming season.

The Contenders

3. Jee Young Lee: She's coming off her worst year in her 4 as an LPGA member following her non-member win in Korea in 2005, but she finally seemed to be on the comeback trail at its end, finishing 2009 with 3-straight top 20s and ending up #33 on my Best of the LPGA ranking. There's only 1 direction she can move in 2010. There's no way a player of her caliber has 2 bad seasons in a row.
4. Momoko Ueda: She won the 2007 Mizuno Classic as a JLPGA member and she did it with a bang--a final-round double eagle. Since then, she's brought her victory total on the JLPGA to 8, but has only cracked the top 10 as an LPGA member 5 times in 37 starts. So why do I rank her so high here? Well, she got 2 of them in the 2nd half of 2009, when the work she'd been putting into her game over the previous season and a half finally started to pay off. I'm looking for a huge 2010 from her.
5. Inbee Park: She seems to have slogged her way through her U.S. Women's Open jinx (see #25 and #26, below), having played well in Asia at the end of 2009 (T7 in Korea, T5 in Japan, T2 at JLPGA Q-School). If she plays her scheduling cards as well in 2010, she can build momentum on the JLPGA and improve on her #5 standing in her rookie class ('07ers) and #14 standing in her generation (Young Guns). I definitely expect her to improve on her #52 standing on my Best of the LPGA ranking.
6. Katherine Hull: In 2009, she showed that her hot streak at the end of 2008, jumpstarted by her win at the Canadian Women's Open, was a true quantum leap, making the top 30 on the money list and keeping her scoring average in the mid-71s for the 2nd-straight season. I'm looking for her to add to her total of 18 career LPGA top 10s in a big way in 2010, particularly if she augments her 7 ALPG wins at home Down Under in the next few weeks. She finished 2009 ranked #27 on my Best of the LPGA ranking and I don't see her going any lower in 2010.
7. Natalie Gulbis: Recurring back problems since her 2007 Evian Masters playoff victory over Jeong Jang have dropped her back where she was in her 1st 3 seasons on the LPGA--a player who makes her share of cuts but has trouble cracking the top 10. In fact, 24 of her top 10s and all 7 of her top 3s came between 2005 and 2007, when she was a regular on the top 20 of the money list. If she can stay healthy this coming season, there's no reason she can't get back to that level. Yes, that's a big "if," but she's coming off a season where she brought her scoring average back in the low 71s and--even though she had to shut things down when her back started acting up again in October and November--still ended up #30 in my final Best of the LPGA ranking. So I'm actually optimistic for her in 2010.
8. Nicole Castrale: Her 2 Solheim Cup appearances and playoff win at the Ginn Tribute in 2007 pushed me to give her the benefit of the doubt and rank her in this category, but she'll need to work very hard in 2010 to bounce back from a very disappointing 2009, when she missed 10 cuts, saw her scoring average approach 72.50, fell outside the top 50 on the money list, and only managed to get her 19th and 20th career top 10s on the LPGA. Still, I'd be very surprised to see her end up in 2010 as low as she ended up in last year's final Best of the LPGA ranking (#54).

Best Without an LPGA Win Heading into 2010

2010-01-10T15:03:28Z

As we head into the LPGA's 2010 season, I'm going to be breaking down the competition in various ways. Since a lot has changed since I last ranked the best on the LPGA without a win--Ai Miyazato, Na Yeon Choi, and Michelle Wie from the list got their 1st wins (not to mention Eunjung Yi and M.J. Hur from off it), for starters--I figured it was about time for an update. Since I plan to do similar lists for active players with 1 win, 2 wins, 3 wins, 4 wins, and 5 wins, I'm moving those with non-member wins off this ranking. For all these posts, I'll be using my Best of the Young Guns and Best of the LPGA rankings, as well as my ranking of the Class of 2009 and survey of the Class of 2010, to help me figure out who goes where here. So here are my top 11; for the full list of 27, head on over to Mostly Harmless:

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Song-Hee Kim: This Futures Tour sensation got off to a slow start on the LPGA, but now has 5 top 3s and 19 top 10s. Plus, she's an excellent putter, one of the best on tour, and has been improving her ballstriking. That's what I call due.

2. Brittany Lang: In 38 more starts than Kim, she has 1 more top 3 and 5 more top 10s, but her slump was longer than deeper than Kim's ever was. 2009 was her 1st full season when she was truly past it and she established herself as one of the tour's best ballstrikers in it. Let's see if she's able to improve her short game even more in 2010. All she needs to break through is 1 week when her putter gets hot.

3. Sun Young Yoo: This late-blooming '06er has the game to contend any given week, but hasn't done it as often as she will in 2010. She gets a good number of top 20s (31 in 104 LPGA starts) and has started to get comfortable with her name near the top of the leaderboard (3 top 3s and 13 top 10s at the end of 2009 are big improvements on where she stood at the end of 2008). So let's see if she can build on her momentum and reach escape velocity in 2010.

4. Hee Young Park: With 4 KLPGA wins to her name and the ability to go very low any time, she just has to have a week where she avoids that one big number to get her 1st LPGA win. 2 top 3s and 10 top 10s in her 53 starts as an LPGA member just scratches the surface of her potential.

5. Kristy McPherson: I don't know, I just have a great feeling about her prospects in 2010. She's a precision player who has room to improve even in that area; she's contended at majors; she's gone through Solheim Cup trial by fire; and she has 3 top 3s and 12 top 10s in her 70 LPGA starts. What's not to like?

6. Amy Yang: Yes, she didn't live up to my prediction that she'd end up the 10th-best player on the LPGA in 2009. But she improved on her rookie season, when she won 3 times on the LET, in every major statistical category. She's on the verge of really breaking through. Once she figures out how to go low outside Europe, she'll be unstoppable!

7. Vicky Hurst: I never though M.J. Hur would beat her to that 1st LPGA win, but there you have it. Still, 2009 was a pretty solid season for the tour's long-driving champion in her rookie season.

8. Stacy Lewis: 2009 was a big let-down for 2008's Q-School medalist, but still a pretty good year for a rookie. Look for her to tap into her considerable talents in 2010.

Have the Talent to Win Any Time, But....

9. Jane Park: She got off to a hot start in 2009 but then her back flared up and she was never the same golfer the rest of the season. Still, even with limited status her rookie season, she already has 3 top 3s and 6 top 10s in 57 starts as an LPGA member. And she felt well enough to caddy for Tiffany Joh at Q-School in December. So if she comes back rested and takes care of her back better in 2010, I expect a win out of her this season.

10. Shiho Oyama: 11 JLPGA wins in 9 seasons don't lie, but tendonitis in the elbows is hard to recover from. She had the wisdom to shut down her season midway through 2009 when it became clear playing through the pain was counterproductive. And she even stayed in the top 80 on the LPGA's money list, securing Category 1 status for 2010. Let's see if she comes back healthy.

11. Angela Park: Yes, her game has deserted her and she's dealing with issues bigger than golf. But even with all those problems she has 3 more top 3s and only 1 fewer top 10 than Kim. Without them, she'd be at the head of this ranking.

2009 LPGA Prognostication Derby Results: Photo Finish

2010-01-07T10:11:41Z

I feel like Santa, making lists and checking them twice. My latest sees how the gang who participated in the 2009 LPGA Prognostication Derby made out. Here are the final results from the 2008 Derby:

1st Mulligan Stu (646)
2nd Hound Dog (604)
3rd The Constructivist (569)
4th Bill Jempty (529)
5th Ron Sirak (518)

Was Mulligan Stu able to defend his title?

1st: Hound Dog (621)
2nd: Ron Sirak (613)
3rd: Ryan Ballengee (609)
4th: The Constructivist (596)
5th: Mulligan Stu (533)
6th: Bill Jempty (516)
7th: Jamie Saengsawang (489)

Congrats to Hound Dog for becoming the 2nd winner of the coveted Mostly Harmless Best LPGA Predictor in 2009 award!

Top Young Guns, Final 2009 Edition

2010-01-07T04:37:46Z

For Hound Dog's regulars, here's how I rank the top 10 careers from the rookie classes of 2006 through 2008--the Young Guns generation. Head on over to Mostly Harmless for the top 25 and for the stats on which I'm basing my rankings.

Simply the Best

1. Ya Ni Tseng. After burning out a little at the end of her rookie season, she came on strong during the home stretch of her sophomore campaign, closing with 8-straight top 25s and 5-straight top 10s. Although she couldn't get her 3rd career win in 2009, she's still 1 of the few active players on the LPGA to be averaging at least 1 win per season. Thanks to making the top 20 more than 73% of the time she makes the cut, she's taking home over $55K per start. If she can get her putter working just a little bit better in 2010, she'll finish next season ranked higher than where she ended this past one in my Best of the LPGA list. She'll need to if she wants to stay #1 in 2010's final Young Guns ranking.
2. Na Yeon Choi. Thanks in part to her 1st and 2nd wins coming much closer together than Tseng's--only a few weeks apart late this past season--she had a better 2009 than her 2008 Rookie of the Year rival. And she's been almost as efficient as the #1 Super Soph at notching top 20s (averaging almost 2 out of every 3 cuts she makes) and raking in the winnings (over $46K per start) over the course of her brief career on the LPGA. With 0 missed cuts in 53 LPGA events and a 7-event top-20 streak going as she starts the 2010 season, it's hard to imagine her falling outside the top 20, but she'll need to keep improving her putting to break into the top 5 overall and to catch Tseng on this list.
3. Eun-Hee Ji: The Open jinx knocked her out of the top 40 in Hound Dog's key performance stats in 2009, but she's too good a player for that to happen again in 2010. 2 of her 5 career top 3s have been wins, so she's been better at making the most of being in contention than in racking up lots of top 10s, top 20s, and made cuts. Even so, she's averaging $37.5K per start over the course of her career, so even little improvements in ballstriking and short game will make her a legitimate top 10 threat in 2010. But she'll need some help from Tseng and Choi to pass them on this list.
4. Seon Hwa Lee: The former #1 in her generation and still the #1 Senior Standout didn't play all that badly in 2009, but she lost a lot of ground to her chief rivals when she finished #23 in my Best of the LPGA ranking. As Hound Dog pointed out, there's nothing that jumps out stats-wise to explain why her 3-year streak with at least 1 LPGA win ended or why she couldn't even make half a million dollars on the course this past season. Perhaps she'll be able to build some confidence and momentum by playing on the JLPGA during some of the LPGA's deadlines. It seems to me she plays her best golf when she gets about 30 starts in a season. That's why in 2010 I expect to see my 2nd-favorite player in her class improve on her $32.5K per start rate and maintain her 1 win per season clip.
5. In-Kyung Kim: Like Choi, my favorite player among the Junior Mints also made up ground in 2009 on her chief rival in her rookie class. Even though she averages about $5.5K less per start than Ji, she has a better top 20 per made cut rate (just over 53% to just under 48%). If she can improve her driving distance and accuracy just a little bit, and work on her endurance in the off-season, she's a legitimate Player of the Year threat in 2010.
6. Morgan Pressel: 2009 was this close to a breakout season for the fiery Senior Standout, as she was able to bring her short game back online after finally grooving her swing changes. As a result, she pulled her winnings rate back over $28K and top 20 per made cut rate over 53%. I said it before and I'll say it again: I have a feeling 2010 is going to be her year.
7. Ai Miyazato: With 13 real chances to win on the LPGA and JLPGA combined, my favorite player won only once on each tour in 2009. I'm still not convinced she ever scored as well as she was playing all season, despite moving her average winnings up to nearly $36K and her top 20 per made cut rate over 57%. The scary thing is, I don't think she was ever playing out of her skull. I'm thinking that her 64 in her final competitive round of 2009 is a sign of things to come in 2010. She's said she's aiming for Player of the Year this coming season--and I don't see why she can't do it.
8. Song-Hee Kim: I can't think of anyone except maybe Brittany Lang who deserves to be ahead of her on my best on the LPGA without a win list. If she can improve her iron play in the offseason, that 1st win will come sooner than later. Like Miyazato, her top 20 per made cut rate is just over 57% and she's averaging over $30K per start.
9. Angela Park: Even while falling off a cliff for most of 2009, the '07 ROY is still averaging more per start than Pressel. But who knows what shape she'll be in when the 2010 season starts?
10. Jee Young Lee: 2009 was easily the worst season of her LPGA career, thanks to a stretch from June to October when she played terribly. Still, she closed out November with 3-straight top 20s, bringing her top 20 per made cut rate to over 59%, so if that marks the end of her slump, then just about everyone else in the class ought to very jealous--and very worried. There's no way someone with her talent should be averaging less than $26K per start.

2010 LPGA and LET ROY Races

2010-01-04T16:23:48Z

There are 4 players with a chance to win both the LPGA and LET ROY titles. How they do in the 1st half of the season on both tours will help determine the outcome of both races. Here's the bottom line from today's Mostly Harmless post:

So much depends on how the LPGA and LET rookies play in the 1st half of the season on both tours. Anna Nordqvist won LET ROY playing in only 6 events in 2009, but I can't see anyone who plays in fewer than 8 having a legitimate chance in 2010, unless they play phenomenally at the Evian Masters and Women's British Open. The time to reassess your worldwide schedule is after those events: do you concentrate on making the LPGA's top 50, qualifying for their Asian swing, and giving yourself a chance in their ROY race? Or do you focus on winning LET ROY and pretty much forget the LPGA until the Tour Championship? Or do you try to figure out how to stay alive in both ROY races somehow?

2010 ROY Frontrunners

2010-01-04T01:09:24Z

Here are my mini-profiles of the top 2 tiers among those I've just divided the LPGA's rookie class of 2010 into over at Mostly Harmless:

Simply the Best
[high priority status, fantastic records]

Amanda Blumenherst: The medalist at LPGA Q-School may well have been the NCCA Player of the Decade, when you look closely at Ryan Herrington's nominees. Although she didn't rock the Futures Tour in the 6 events that she entered last season (finishing 30th on their money list), she played solidly in the LPGA events she got into via sponsor exemptions, even coming off a relatively down year at Duke in her senior season. She's 1 of many rookies this year that have me thinking that recent NCAA grads may make a much bigger splash on the LPGA than most of their recent predecessors did early in their careers.
Azahara Munoz: Also making Herrington's All-Decade list, this Arizona State grad already has an LET win under her belt and finished T5 at LPGA Q-School, so she'll be 1 of many players dividing her time between 2 tours in 2010. Given how many gaps there are in the LPGA's schedule, she could actually have an advantage on Blumenherst if she stays sharp and builds up momentum on the LET. She has a great chance to outdo Anna Nordqvist and win ROY on both tours this coming season.
Pernilla Lindberg: Even with big let-downs at LPGA and LET Q-Schools, where she finished T16 and T23, respectively, she's already a step ahead of where fellow Annika protege Anna Nordqvist was heading into her rookie season. Another legitimate threat for a double ROY, she played 10 events on the Futures Tour in 2009, finishing 11th on the money list and garnering the lowest scoring average on tour.

The Contenders
[high priority status, very good records]

Marianne Skarpnord: A 2-time winner on the LET, she was 1 of only 4 players to break the 200K-Euro barrier on their money list in 2009. And she followed it up with a T2 at LPGA Q-School. Looks like she made a quantum leap in 2008 and hasn't looked back; I wonder if, like fellow Norwegian Suzann Pettersen, she had to fight through some early injury problems?
Gwladys Nocera: A legitimate LET superstar, she broke 70 3 times in LPGA Q-School, including twice on the last marathon day, to secure T16. She hasn't often played her best off the LET, but strong performances at the Solheim Cup and during the LET's Asian swing suggests she may have reached a new level.
Mina Harigae: Yes, I know she rocked the Futures Tour, winning 3 events, finishing 1st on their money list, and declining her battlefield promotion to rest and prepare for the 2010 LPGA season. But her stats were not nearly as impressive as Vicky Hurst's were in 2008 and I think it's harder for precision players to make the transition to LPGA competition as opposed to a bomber like Hurst--plus, Harigae didn't even make the top 15 in driving accuracy or greens in regulation in '09, so it's not like she was even an exceptional precision player on the FT. Hence, while only Pernilla Lindberg had a lower scoring average than she did in FT play, I'm not expecting her to be a serious factor in the ROY race--but I'm open to being pleasantly surprised. If she improves her ballstriking in the offseason and putts like she did in '09 on the FT (despite hitting greens at a rate below 69.5%, she made birdies at a rate of 3.30 per round), she could surprise on the upside.
Maria Hernandez: The 2009 NCAA Player of the Year in women's golf had a little bit of a struggle adjusting to competition on the Futures Tour, finishing 85th on their money list in only 6 events, but she roared back at the end of the year, finishing T5 at the LPGA's Q-School and T8 at the LET's.
Mariajo Uribe: Yet another Spanish-speaker with dual LPGA-LET membership, this Colombian superstar finished T12 at LPGA Q-School and 3rd at the LET's. Plus she's a friend and former UCLA teammate of Tiffany Joh's, so I'll be rooting for her in 2010.
Beatriz Recari: She won on the LET in August and finished 22nd on their money list, making 2009 the best season of her 4 as a professional. Her stats weren't quite as impressive as Skarpnord's, but there's nothing like experience.